TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c3,520$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.624,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes32c1,316$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.081,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No3c878.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.538,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c752.75$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.182,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No56c741.52$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.5331454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes38c455$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.811,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes49c429.05$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.541,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c374.09$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes35c343.46$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c327.41$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes61c315.11$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.855,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No34c310.82$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.185,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No61c287.35$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.531,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c280.49$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.323,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No39c258.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.441,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c227.57$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.794,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes52c226.13$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.81,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c193.27$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.034,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No53c177.58$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed No10c160.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1218038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a14…5bb2backed Yes67c156.83$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes73c149.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.057945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No67c132$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.81,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes70c130$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes63c127.53$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.336,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No47c121.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.037,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No29c120.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9620631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No29c113.34$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.361,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No62c108.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No59c108.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes42c107.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3254234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No62c105$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.112351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4213588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes40c95.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.673135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No57c95.17$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.55444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No50c93.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No52c93.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.892,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No50c91.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9887629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No38c89.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6316045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c86.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No46c86.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8385049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c85.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes56c84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0427756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.525,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed No20c75.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0729219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c75.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.124,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No50c72.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.391,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c72.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.812,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d3…c14bbacked Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No37c69.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.651,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No37c67.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2535232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No64c66.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.122,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No45c66.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes43c65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes38c63.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3635137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes37c60.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.199846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.252758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed No67c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.23745.9%17 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No62c59.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.42,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad81…d891backed Yes29c57.69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes40c56.97$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.354547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No40c56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.411,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No62c53.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3546549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No51c52.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.812,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed No39c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes64c50.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.292,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f52…3785backed Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.543663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes39c48.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5262137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No57c46.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.521,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No61c46.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.122,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No45c46.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.622,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes41c45.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.621,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x898d…f6a5backed Yes41c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No55c42.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.192,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No43c42.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.241,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes70c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.34535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes38c40.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9415529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2831…5473backed Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.71060%6 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.215345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes77c38.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.965358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.563,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf722…4e1ebacked No43c37.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.232948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes36c35.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes36c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No62c32.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.019053.3%48 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No63c29.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebab…8793backed Yes69c29.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.11560%9 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No68c28.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.161,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes42c28.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.23,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…97c4backed No60c26.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-45.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x426b…6bb8backed No64c25.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.52944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d6b…e23cbacked No58c25.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No56c23.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.012,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No53c23.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.342,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.