TailMyPicks
Market

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof Pcific Esports, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$199,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$229,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Pcific Esports48c30,927$14,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,850.55530.9%17 W · 38 L-8.8wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked Pcific Esports52c23,906$12,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,343.2718148.1%87 W · 94 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Gentle Mates53c22,352$11,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,477.7816647.6%79 W · 87 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Gentle Mates73c16,486$12,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,436.1710455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b7…027dbacked Pcific Esports21c13,858$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.72520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Pcific Esports27c13,000$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,51026650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Pcific Esports22c10,778$2,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,370.6315431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Gentle Mates60c10,000$6,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,969.3732445.4%147 W · 177 L+51.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+39.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Gentle Mates79c7,000$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47052455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Gentle Mates53c4,500$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.8522344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pcific Esports33c4,398$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.2540945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Gentle Mates49c3,773$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,924.23520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Pcific Esports39c3,600$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.741225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Pcific Esports46c3,577$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.87955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Gentle Mates48c3,562$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.43650%18 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Gentle Mates52c3,500$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68019960.3%120 W · 79 L+17.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Pcific Esports21c3,500$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.9142035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Pcific Esports21c3,375$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.674630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Gentle Mates64c3,198$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.3268458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Gentle Mates64c3,109$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.5565559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Gentle Mates79c3,100$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6556759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Gentle Mates57c2,731$1,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.6433838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Gentle Mates57c2,632$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.9357550.6%291 W · 284 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Gentle Mates49c2,541$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.826456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Pcific Esports48c2,386$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1509340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Gentle Mates73c2,184$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.9294361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Gentle Mates53c1,872$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.775142.7%321 W · 430 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gentle Mates79c1,754$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.1944441.9%186 W · 258 L-22.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Pcific Esports43c1,723$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.291,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b9…5699backed Gentle Mates79c1,637$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.831040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Gentle Mates79c1,348$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.1856551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Pcific Esports45c1,271$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.765238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Gentle Mates44c1,251$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.971,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Gentle Mates59c1,212$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.2570543.5%307 W · 398 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Gentle Mates76c1,029$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.515347.1%72 W · 81 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f83…761bbacked Gentle Mates80c1,000$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2051050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Pcific Esports19c963.76$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.3786747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Gentle Mates61c949.45$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.1978344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08b2…257bbacked Pcific Esports5c888.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Pcific Esports28c799.77$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5524250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Gentle Mates65c759.51$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.832152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Gentle Mates46c746.16$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.0916547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Gentle Mates72c740.63$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.541,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Gentle Mates79c629.1$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8985138.1%324 W · 527 L-51.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0c…da03backed Pcific Esports43c625.21$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.3811738.5%45 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f16…284ebacked Gentle Mates48c625$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3253865.8%25 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Gentle Mates64c612.42$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.5132462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed Pcific Esports49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2944040%16 W · 24 L-8.4wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-39.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x474c…6625backed Pcific Esports24c595.06$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.12740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Gentle Mates49c576.4$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.1846746.7%218 W · 249 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked Gentle Mates55c533.09$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.0412856.3%72 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Gentle Mates59c511.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.219847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Gentle Mates79c500.1$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0225453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e6…aea9backed Gentle Mates79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gentle Mates40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30025046.4%116 W · 134 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Gentle Mates80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b2…4ba1backed Pcific Esports46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Pcific Esports18c487.58$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.674736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Gentle Mates53c482.5$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.0936138.5%139 W · 222 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Pcific Esports48c470$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.63756.8%21 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Gentle Mates71c445.69$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.693262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Pcific Esports46c426.62$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.347540%30 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Gentle Mates61c413.33$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.3318149.7%90 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed Gentle Mates80c412.11$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4212755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Gentle Mates60c403.52$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.021,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Gentle Mates79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8463955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Gentle Mates58c399.01$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.2728942.9%124 W · 165 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dad…6e45backed Gentle Mates79c397.39$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.86862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Gentle Mates48c395.83$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8317853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Gentle Mates48c379.17$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.175052%26 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed Gentle Mates53c373.58$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5828056.4%158 W · 122 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Pcific Esports20c358.24$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4627146.9%127 W · 144 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Pcific Esports40c350.84$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.711,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3647…581bbacked Gentle Mates64c340.16$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.463461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed Pcific Esports50c328$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1645147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b2…f252backed Gentle Mates52c327.4$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.42458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pcific Esports8c315$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4246526.7%124 W · 341 L-25.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gentle Mates78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6693248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Gentle Mates76c291.99$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5540345.9%185 W · 218 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Pcific Esports18c282.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025536.9%94 W · 161 L-0.9wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Gentle Mates56c280$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.225555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Gentle Mates65c273.73$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2139350.9%200 W · 193 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Gentle Mates78c271.57$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5324551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Gentle Mates61c263.91$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7596945%436 W · 533 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Gentle Mates80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5018653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Gentle Mates49c220.41$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.417853.8%42 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Pcific Esports20c217.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5453742.1%226 W · 311 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Pcific Esports31c217$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1955637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Gentle Mates66c214.08$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8949455.3%273 W · 221 L+23.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Gentle Mates68c212.5$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.25855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc352…a152backed Gentle Mates80c211.56$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.314663%29 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Gentle Mates48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3313148.1%63 W · 68 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Gentle Mates76c201.56$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.781834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked Gentle Mates50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Pcific Esports23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4625943.2%112 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Gentle Mates54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9214850.7%75 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Gentle Mates56c199$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3323732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1afd…427ebacked Pcific Esports48c197.58$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.841338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Gentle Mates79c189.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.872552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Gentle Mates75c182.35$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1713662.5%85 W · 51 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.