Earnings · resolved market
Will Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x129079c6f09b11e0c6d57162f3d396251baec4a01d38a94ccf04506fda7b604b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x619f…9414backed Yes | 60c | 6,557$3,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 40c | 6,313$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.51 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1219…e791backed Yes | 64c | 3,861$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4009…84cdbacked No | 39c | 3,171$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 41c | 2,006$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 47c | 683.51$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.09 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…f56cbacked Yes | 49c | 605.43$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533f…312fbacked Yes | 50c | 567.45$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 60c | 483.93$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.77 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 476.24$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 36c | 403$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 306 | 15%46 W · 260 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 57c | 382.56$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 329$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.5 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…deebbacked Yes | 55c | 316.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…85e0backed No | 40c | 298.05$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 53c | 247.28$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.68 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…63fdbacked No | 49c | 213$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 187.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 63c | 175.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 139.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes | 75c | 133.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 52c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 67c | 119.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 30c | 105.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 32c | 99.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 36c | 81.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 36c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…0292backed No | 47c | 71.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 36c | 70.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 72c | 69.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked No | 45c | 67.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 44c | 67.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 47c | 66.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 46c | 66.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 65.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 46c | 65.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc4…030fbacked Yes | 47c | 62.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…6f1bbacked Yes | 58c | 52.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1219…c43fbacked Yes | 54c | 51.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed Yes | 29c | 51.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a4…d3d2backed No | 41c | 51.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…7ea1backed No | 40c | 51.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked No | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…ddbbbacked No | 51c | 47.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 46c | 46.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed No | 44c | 46.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed No | 43c | 46.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 39c | 45.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked Yes | 54c | 44.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…d8d5backed No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +180%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…55a1backed No | 52c | 40.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 40.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 52c | 38.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 37c | 37.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 53c | 35.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 42c | 35.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ea…7727backed Yes | 52c | 35.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…a2bdbacked No | 68c | 35.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…93bfbacked Yes | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…d5d3backed Yes | 50c | 28.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…3c39backed No | 36c | 27.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 62c | 27.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 57c | 25.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 58c | 23.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…dd0fbacked No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 51c | 22.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked No | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…5738backed No | 48c | 21.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9f…082bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…a9a9backed Yes | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.