La Liga · resolved market
Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1346e691b9ae0d77e2ef88b4d15a9958e551bdf51b3e1713a37a9e68e855e833
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 39,441$7,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,639.79 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 19c | 1,657$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.38 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 20c | 1,100$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.03 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 22c | 1,092$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -72%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 19c | 992.92$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 19c | 991.39$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.66 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 19c | 824.07$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 17c | 740.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 19c | 403$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 19c | 372.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 277 | 58.5%162 W · 115 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 19c | 337.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 8c | 335.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 22c | 275.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 145 | 25.5%37 W · 108 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 32.8%76 W · 156 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 16c | 224$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 697 | 50.8%354 W · 343 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 19c | 203.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 21c | 169.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 225 | 57.3%129 W · 96 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 11c | 135.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 128.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 24c | 128.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Over | 78c | 103.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…cd34backed Under | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 80c | 76.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…6e54backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 20c | 61.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 19c | 52.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 20c | 52.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 76c | 28.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…f1e6backed Over | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Real Racing Club O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Real Racing Club O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Real Racing Club O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Real Racing Club (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Real Racing Club won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Real Racing Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.