La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2afa88ee0a30e5bf386f98f205e5a6a29ca209d8bf49ee412bb2da71009a0244
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Racing Clubof Villarreal CF, Real Racing Club
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Villarreal CF | 14c | 1,653$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.8 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…bab9backed Villarreal CF | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Real Racing Club | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Real Racing Club | 72c | 819.91$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.57 | 637 | 57.1%364 W · 273 L | +28.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Villarreal CF | 24c | 608$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 988 | 33.4%330 W · 658 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Real Racing Club | 74c | 209.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Villarreal CF | 8c | 147.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 393 | 38.9%153 W · 240 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Villarreal CF | 21c | 146.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Real Racing Club | 76c | 106.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…26b5backed Villarreal CF | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Villarreal CF | 27c | 101.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…259bbacked Real Racing Club | 73c | 101.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc83c…7dc3backed Villarreal CF | 24c | 100.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Villarreal CF | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 190 | 37.9%72 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Villarreal CF | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Villarreal CF | 16c | 92.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 564 | 39.2%221 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Real Racing Club | 74c | 84.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,497 | 38.6%578 W · 919 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…ea9abacked Villarreal CF | 18c | 83.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Racing Club | 74c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,559 | 51.6%804 W · 755 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Real Racing Club | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Villarreal CF | 21c | 74.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Real Racing Club | 72c | 71.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Villarreal CF | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Villarreal CF | 17c | 58.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Villarreal CF | 22c | 50.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Real Racing Club | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Villarreal CF | 22c | 46.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Real Racing Club | 76c | 41.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 434 | 39.6%172 W · 262 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…eceebacked Villarreal CF | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Real Racing Club | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Real Racing Club | 74c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Real Racing Club | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Real Racing Club | 79c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Real Racing Club | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Real Racing Club | 76c | 18.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Real Racing Club | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…30d1backed Real Racing Club | 73c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)this page
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Real Racing Club O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Real Racing Club O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Real Racing Club O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Racing Club vs. Villarreal CF: Villarreal CF O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Real Racing Club (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Real Racing Club (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Real Racing Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.