TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Legacyof Legacy, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$698,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$767,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $698,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 438 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1610…ae49backed FUT Esports49c79,447$38,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,781.3914647.3%69 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked FUT Esports50c40,035$20,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,016.334431.8%14 W · 30 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed Legacy51c29,222$14,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,318.785570.9%39 W · 16 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+35.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x691a…12babacked FUT Esports23c20,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.993531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Legacy49c19,515$9,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,997.959348.4%45 W · 48 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Legacy64c17,913$11,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,482.0888848.3%429 W · 459 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed FUT Esports18c17,036$3,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.23721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Legacy62c16,682$10,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,403.141,27347.1%600 W · 673 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed FUT Esports22c16,667$3,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,666.654946.9%23 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Legacy51c16,357$8,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,977.6246750.1%234 W · 233 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Legacy58c13,355$7,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,557.910354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Legacy72c9,826$7,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,753.361,06949.3%527 W · 542 L+40.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05f6…25a1backed FUT Esports48c9,747$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.54475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Legacy49c9,399$4,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,793.6413155%72 W · 59 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Legacy67c9,167$6,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,039.831,62745.7%743 W · 884 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Legacy55c9,098$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,098.361942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Legacy51c8,865$4,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,336.0833552.5%176 W · 159 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked FUT Esports20c7,300$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.8611851.7%61 W · 57 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Legacy51c7,000$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,43041640.4%168 W · 248 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FUT Esports52c6,940$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.677957.4%447 W · 332 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…7f32backed Legacy70c6,421$4,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.141154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Legacy80c6,250$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2509472.3%68 W · 26 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed FUT Esports52c6,230$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.437454.8%205 W · 169 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed FUT Esports22c6,146$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.3718943.4%82 W · 107 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Legacy75c5,961$4,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.8990347.2%426 W · 477 L+12.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Legacy49c5,836$2,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,974.8112241.8%51 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked Legacy78c5,651$4,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.9518667.2%125 W · 61 L-0.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Legacy49c5,416$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.559245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Legacy47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.9937345.6%170 W · 203 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x997f…b0f7backed Legacy51c4,700$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked FUT Esports52c4,554$2,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.0424146.1%111 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Legacy77c4,500$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0356045%27 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked FUT Esports46c4,444$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.2122931%71 W · 158 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Legacy48c4,316$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.3223653.8%127 W · 109 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb15…5485backed Legacy52c4,123$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.31376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+42.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7403…0e82backed FUT Esports49c4,105$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked FUT Esports49c4,027$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.215056%28 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Legacy53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88013956.8%79 W · 60 L+0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FUT Esports23c3,875$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.172,69130.7%826 W · 1,865 L-110.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked FUT Esports19c3,867$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7508941.6%37 W · 52 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Legacy50c3,836$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.542,12041.9%889 W · 1,231 L-47.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Legacy51c3,714$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.1850050.8%254 W · 246 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4858…3dd3backed FUT Esports48c3,562$1,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.061428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Legacy51c3,500$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71557336.1%207 W · 366 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x631a…b631backed FUT Esports25c3,041$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked FUT Esports48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.984641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8813…47e6backed FUT Esports51c2,998$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.897159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa058…c0ddbacked FUT Esports47c2,987$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+89.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked FUT Esports52c2,839$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.283959%23 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Legacy78c2,784$2,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.5141554.2%225 W · 190 L+26.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Legacy69c2,743$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.521,46139.3%574 W · 887 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd25f…eab3backed FUT Esports25c2,737$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.855742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafcb…df99backed FUT Esports60c2,711$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FUT Esports30c2,711$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.723,62429.4%1,065 W · 2,559 L-291.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Legacy52c2,710$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.8812751.2%65 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Legacy53c2,656$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.027040%28 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked FUT Esports49c2,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2258860.2%53 W · 35 L+12.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Legacy38c2,500$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.9922625.7%58 W · 168 L+0.8wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Legacy49c2,451$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.1838745.7%177 W · 210 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed FUT Esports51c2,411$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.6133932.2%109 W · 230 L-1.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…4a30backed FUT Esports42c2,384$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.67850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Legacy76c2,163$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.582060%12 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed FUT Esports20c2,144$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.421471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Legacy52c2,049$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.612347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8af…9ea8backed Legacy52c2,041$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Legacy73c2,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53025862.4%161 W · 97 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Legacy51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.9979740%319 W · 478 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Legacy48c1,966$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.325567.3%37 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x823d…f85bbacked FUT Esports26c1,933$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.422356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports51c1,855$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.8775945.3%344 W · 415 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4734…4ed5backed FUT Esports53c1,845$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.781250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d66…ff1dbacked Legacy51c1,732$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.881752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eab…4822backed Legacy52c1,719$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.2312050.8%61 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521f…3344backed Legacy52c1,717$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.827050%35 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Legacy69c1,714$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.3187344.3%387 W · 486 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Legacy50c1,666$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83311650%58 W · 58 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked FUT Esports49c1,643$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80015149%74 W · 77 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Legacy48c1,623$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.8817750.8%90 W · 87 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked FUT Esports50c1,592$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.485,13755%2,826 W · 2,311 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FUT Esports25c1,558$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39054837.4%205 W · 343 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Legacy66c1,552$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.4947346.7%221 W · 252 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Legacy53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70526350.6%133 W · 130 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed FUT Esports14c1,480$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4356132.6%183 W · 378 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed FUT Esports50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FUT Esports36c1,363$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.393,99436.5%1,456 W · 2,538 L-207.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Legacy79c1,353$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28339968.4%273 W · 126 L+28.0wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1aee…637abacked FUT Esports46c1,339$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.173857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Legacy71c1,323$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.957965.8%52 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked FUT Esports61c1,291$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.713716.8%23 W · 114 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed FUT Esports20c1,282$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504540%18 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Legacy50c1,269$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.961,54951.3%795 W · 754 L-11.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked FUT Esports30c1,255$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.8940254%217 W · 185 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbfc…e3eebacked Legacy59c1,231$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.84875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked FUT Esports5c1,215$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5871123.9%170 W · 541 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa048…f2b5backed FUT Esports30c1,211$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e18…872ebacked FUT Esports50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009369.9%65 W · 28 L+13.4wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed FUT Esports48c1,188$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.245957.6%34 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec2…82babacked FUT Esports23c1,172$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.575040%20 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed FUT Esports32c1,161$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.661,68347%791 W · 892 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21fe…c3ccbacked FUT Esports52c1,150$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.