TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bears of Bills , Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,434 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bills 41c21,869$9,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,042.2341851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Bears 58c12,216$7,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,130.5314351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Bills 34c5,938$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,019.396245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Bears 64c5,735$3,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.683540%14 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Bills 1c5,681$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.151969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5123…5d71backed Bears 60c3,582$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Bears 58c2,378$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.7426650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Bills 1c2,072$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.441128%9 W · 103 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+413.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bears 57c2,072$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.2231848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Bears 60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8005530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Bills 2c1,719$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.974311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Bills 1c1,356$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc525…7a36backed Bills 41c1,088$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d5…1ccbbacked Bears 60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003372.7%24 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+29.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Bears 58c884.63$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.542948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…2270backed Bills 48c820.31$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.252373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Bills 43c815.95$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35013335.3%47 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Bills 41c799.98$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9912133.9%41 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Bears 60c740.48$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.197557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Bears 67c641.53$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.433545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Bills 42c638.1$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26820039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4332…975dbacked Bills 42c586.57$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Bears 57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.321560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Bears 59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20510624.5%26 W · 80 L-12.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Bears 59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20515851.9%82 W · 76 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Bears 57c419.99$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.66264.5%40 W · 22 L+12.4wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+141.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Bills 43c419.75$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.694348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Bills 16c402.45$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3919551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde8c…6307backed Bills 42c343.8$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.871625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Bears 57c326.18$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.2611237.5%42 W · 70 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90ca…5830backed Bills 37c322.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.272825%7 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x644e…99c6backed Bills 5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Bills 22c285.94$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0514537.2%54 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bears 64c262.32$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1831056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ac…392cbacked Bears 59c250.08$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.536743.3%29 W · 38 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+39.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Bills 41c245.74$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.754553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Bears 59c244.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4511047.3%52 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff68…b34ebacked Bills 41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Bills 42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2838…32bbbacked Bears 69c232.44$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.114860.8%90 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bills 46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017558.9%103 W · 72 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Bills 46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038459.9%230 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a8…3b1fbacked Bears 60c213.16$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.731266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91a7…cac6backed Bears 59c213.01$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.011560%9 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Bears 59c212.41$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.731782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+65.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cc9…2a64backed Bills 13c203.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Bills 41c200.32$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.119633.3%32 W · 64 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…5518backed Bills 29c169.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Bears 60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.677048.6%34 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fba…bdbdbacked Bills 31c159.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Bears 57c158.69$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2415252%79 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb683…61b1backed Bears 57c157.89$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.895750.9%29 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Bears 74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0418151.9%94 W · 87 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Bears 56c149.27$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.685139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-34.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Bills 33c139.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.384829.2%14 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bears 55c128.31$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7432050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd561…9423backed Bills 44c127.25$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9910467.3%70 W · 34 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bears 57c125.22$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.737350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Bills 42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a6…d90cbacked Bills 16c112.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2fd…b3cebacked Bills 44c111$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Bears 79c106.77$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.522075%15 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+47.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Bears 60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.123351.9%121 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cbe…fce9backed Bears 59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Bears 56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4419654.1%106 W · 90 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Bears 59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4159453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Bills 42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9912250%61 W · 61 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc95c…cef3backed Bills 35c99.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4817359%102 W · 71 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5180…e2f7backed Bills 45c93.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c6a…3d68backed Bills 43c88.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a8…f170backed Bills 25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-67.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d51…58a3backed Bills 42c78.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41f…e827backed Bears 57c76.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.014161%25 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Bills 27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c68…b1cfbacked Bears 58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.976066.7%40 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe435…0bb1backed Bears 59c67.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Bears 74c67.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.431936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8dd1…f095backed Bills 41c63.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills 32c57.01$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3856852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Bears 61c51.23$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.04887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+42.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43d4…e199backed Bears 61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Bills 31c48.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a9d…9de8backed Bills 43c48.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick33cpaid+108.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8e19…ab82backed Bills 42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee4…b575backed Bills 43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204141.5%17 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc5…6ed8backed Bills 42c42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5471…0aaebacked Bears 58c42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…7b6ebacked Bills 43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.217060.6%103 W · 67 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11c8…60fbbacked Bills 45c37.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Bears 57c36.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.893860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7552…0f46backed Bears 59c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.31353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xded7…1ef1backed Bears 59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb5…da2cbacked Bears 59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bills 41c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1236826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddca…239abacked Bills 42c31.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b38…e623backed Bears 57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4050…5889backed Bills 43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9c…e860backed Bears 68c29.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cfd…5f97backed Bills 42c26.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2c…4ae8backed Bears 60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105259.6%31 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.