TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Rune Eaters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$611,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$679,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $611,448 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed Rune Eaters23c158,255$35,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,782.199733%32 W · 65 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed PARIVISION77c81,624$62,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,628.9412259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed PARIVISION78c72,183$56,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,880.2312159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fe3…fec3backed Rune Eaters19c51,400$9,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,607.121735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Rune Eaters21c23,514$4,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,891.2945139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Rune Eaters22c23,059$4,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,957.9640051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION77c15,322$11,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,520.7628159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION79c13,940$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.441,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Rune Eaters22c12,487$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,747.1423435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed PARIVISION79c11,500$9,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,41522663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Rune Eaters19c10,526$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010641.5%44 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked PARIVISION79c10,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10019847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION79c8,893$7,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.4979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed PARIVISION78c6,003$4,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,316.1956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked PARIVISION76c5,718$4,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.229643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Rune Eaters22c5,435$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.77152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Rune Eaters16c5,132$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.4925446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Rune Eaters20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00027645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION79c4,779$3,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.631,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Rune Eaters22c4,545$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked Rune Eaters21c4,500$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.399042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Rune Eaters9c4,400$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Rune Eaters11c4,394$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29ee…a16fbacked Rune Eaters8c4,110$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.883737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Rune Eaters14c4,058$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.1314136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Rune Eaters4c4,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17033453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked PARIVISION78c3,823$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.3719853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2929…1dd0backed PARIVISION79c3,797$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.4716553.3%88 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Rune Eaters22c3,782$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.422339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Rune Eaters13c3,743$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.2748053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed PARIVISION77c3,550$2,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.4953758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed PARIVISION80c3,540$2,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.9130667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed PARIVISION79c3,437$2,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.8130357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked PARIVISION79c3,212$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.621,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed Rune Eaters21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6306653%35 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Rune Eaters17c2,769$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.1735737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked PARIVISION79c2,532$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.725964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Rune Eaters19c2,500$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.2781029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Rune Eaters22c2,400$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52831547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8010…c05fbacked Rune Eaters1c2,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1616932.5%55 W · 114 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Rune Eaters18c2,267$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Rune Eaters1c2,254$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.716132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Rune Eaters22c2,250$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.751,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Rune Eaters22c2,240$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.358744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Rune Eaters23c2,174$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed PARIVISION79c2,020$1,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.224153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Rune Eaters16c2,000$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.4552046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Rune Eaters21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9918830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Rune Eaters16c1,899$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION80c1,888$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed Rune Eaters23c1,703$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION80c1,634$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.7256852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b9…c411backed Rune Eaters5c1,632$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.732025%5 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21c7…42e7backed Rune Eaters12c1,614$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9510256.9%58 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed PARIVISION79c1,582$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.2241351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a96…7a34backed Rune Eaters21c1,537$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.143735.1%13 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed PARIVISION80c1,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3009556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Rune Eaters9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13536343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Rune Eaters23c1,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34553652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed PARIVISION79c1,467$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.0635151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Rune Eaters9c1,440$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5624034.2%82 W · 158 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb417…d931backed Rune Eaters20c1,350$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2704930.6%15 W · 34 L-6.6wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xabac…879cbacked PARIVISION79c1,336$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.451060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa226…edadbacked Rune Eaters7c1,336$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011444.7%51 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed PARIVISION79c1,300$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.57263.9%46 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Rune Eaters22c1,300$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28614943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed PARIVISION79c1,265$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed PARIVISION79c1,255$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.6434667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Rune Eaters19c1,250$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.534442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked PARIVISION80c1,250$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25532756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Rune Eaters15c1,250$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.545352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Rune Eaters15c1,188$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.610735.5%38 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Rune Eaters6c1,165$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.837811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Rune Eaters22c1,136$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdde3…e14bbacked Rune Eaters18c1,111$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.923438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Rune Eaters19c1,105$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21022340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION78c1,104$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.8458152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked PARIVISION79c1,052$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.9235951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Rune Eaters20c1,048$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Rune Eaters23c1,011$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.956735.8%24 W · 43 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…4f30backed Rune Eaters10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037745.4%171 W · 206 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked PARIVISION78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22027060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed PARIVISION79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2108958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked PARIVISION77c999.98$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9911733.3%39 W · 78 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Rune Eaters20c952.1$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4253844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2355…4869backed PARIVISION79c886.08$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.0810552.4%55 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Rune Eaters22c880.12$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19872035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ee…83b0backed Rune Eaters20c851.4$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.5415742%66 W · 91 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcea4…be49backed Rune Eaters5c777$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.851118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-65.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Rune Eaters21c757$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5443049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Rune Eaters22c749.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16537047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x697f…e44ebacked PARIVISION79c745.03$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4611159.5%66 W · 45 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked PARIVISION80c728.16$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6317965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2862…78dcbacked Rune Eaters21c717.39$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Rune Eaters16c672.48$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8442146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c13…71a1backed Rune Eaters23c653.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504540%18 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked PARIVISION79c650$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.549644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Rune Eaters13c637.6$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0669132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67f9…d72ebacked PARIVISION79c632.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.913256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cd…3ca2backed PARIVISION77c632.23$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.416532.3%21 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.