TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Weibo Gaming, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$215,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$276,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,960 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52ec…a6f3backed Weibo Gaming47c14,662$6,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,819.3781143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Weibo Gaming68c11,232$7,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,633.1431153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Weibo Gaming3c11,217$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.152072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Top Esports32c10,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,80021448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Top Esports78c9,098$7,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.2414056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Top Esports41c6,988$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,112.331,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…cc46backed Top Esports60c5,082$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.671936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f2…d84fbacked Weibo Gaming53c4,977$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.8313345.1%60 W · 73 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Top Esports42c4,740$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,730.241,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Weibo Gaming11c4,465$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.911,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Weibo Gaming49c4,114$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.882,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f6…68eabacked Top Esports55c3,706$2,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.472528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Weibo Gaming46c3,570$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.1495041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Top Esports41c3,534$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.0454353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Weibo Gaming4c3,500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15518520.5%38 W · 147 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Top Esports38c3,111$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.0655955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Weibo Gaming58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.9867552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Weibo Gaming61c2,974$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.0117839.3%70 W · 108 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Top Esports66c2,813$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.1217744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Top Esports45c2,610$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.6310445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1961…1dbcbacked Weibo Gaming57c2,409$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Top Esports52c2,405$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.2563161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Weibo Gaming5c2,366$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12029335.2%103 W · 190 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…c1c9backed Top Esports72c2,348$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.494486.4%38 W · 6 L+13.4wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+45.1%equal weight72+0.19 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed Top Esports43c2,337$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.340435.1%142 W · 262 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Weibo Gaming46c2,037$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.5931644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Top Esports49c2,036$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.321,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Weibo Gaming2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca0f…dcb0backed Weibo Gaming2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8d…556bbacked Top Esports34c1,773$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.471566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Top Esports41c1,709$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.4125038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Weibo Gaming58c1,701$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.847852.6%41 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Weibo Gaming47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7051,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Top Esports39c1,500$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d69…7e98backed Weibo Gaming10c1,454$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3518914.8%28 W · 161 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Weibo Gaming59c1,357$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80026645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Weibo Gaming59c1,301$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.9839851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Weibo Gaming57c1,228$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70016034.4%55 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Weibo Gaming31c1,200$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3661,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Top Esports62c1,132$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.391,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee9d…85f1backed Weibo Gaming62c1,100$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68713056.9%74 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00df…0d23backed Top Esports56c1,071$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.439852%51 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Top Esports39c1,025$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.211,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf1d…caadbacked Weibo Gaming59c1,017$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009252.2%48 W · 44 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Weibo Gaming22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Weibo Gaming59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe3…c693backed Weibo Gaming59c999.9$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.941942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Weibo Gaming61c994$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.951,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Weibo Gaming20c962.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1369756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7a0…05c4backed Top Esports42c952.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.3835035.1%123 W · 227 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41e…9350backed Top Esports54c918.76$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.0211736.8%43 W · 74 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Top Esports40c846.65$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.9923547.7%112 W · 123 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7745…230bbacked Weibo Gaming56c800.47$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.562941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd711…bbccbacked Top Esports62c800$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.382958.6%17 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde3c…9656backed Top Esports41c799.99$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.992740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Top Esports39c799$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.391,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf386…9b3fbacked Weibo Gaming1c750$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105330.2%16 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Weibo Gaming58c744.58$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4358453.6%45 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Weibo Gaming3c699.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Weibo Gaming65c688.45$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9642148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1a…abadbacked Weibo Gaming6c666$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.964233.3%14 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e86…2db2backed Weibo Gaming62c645.16$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40024629.7%73 W · 173 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Weibo Gaming47c616.82$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.6585046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a6…9a77backed Weibo Gaming13c599.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782913.8%4 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed Weibo Gaming34c599.98$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633845.3%153 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb9…3730backed Top Esports51c584.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed Weibo Gaming59c575.66$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.641,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc57a…fe9fbacked Top Esports42c571.43$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.4314044.3%62 W · 78 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked Weibo Gaming50c564.29$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.1426245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked Weibo Gaming42c548.23$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7129833.9%101 W · 197 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd90…68e6backed Top Esports80c510.52$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Weibo Gaming13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Top Esports53c500$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23486758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4384…175fbacked Weibo Gaming4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22527.7%4 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c3b…e573backed Weibo Gaming62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3104647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Weibo Gaming65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32540347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Weibo Gaming40c499.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20095847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed Weibo Gaming62c487.47$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2325560.8%155 W · 100 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Weibo Gaming2c480$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eac…67cbbacked Weibo Gaming3c469.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.099632.3%31 W · 65 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b87…75d0backed Top Esports42c450$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.58951.7%46 W · 43 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c96…763fbacked Top Esports39c428$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.084914.3%7 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Weibo Gaming52c411$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.6237345%168 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Top Esports39c403.23$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.971,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x096f…5c68backed Weibo Gaming45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18021644%95 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbdb…b84dbacked Weibo Gaming31c400$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Weibo Gaming49c396.41$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.941,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Top Esports42c381.98$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.5543542.8%186 W · 249 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Top Esports40c379.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.237039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Weibo Gaming48c375.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.472,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba3a…b49abacked Top Esports53c372.01$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.7518053.3%96 W · 84 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Top Esports54c367.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.736943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3adc…972dbacked Top Esports77c363.79$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.442962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5784…6788backed Top Esports69c359.52$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.336259.7%37 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Weibo Gaming60c350$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21030050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Top Esports38c349.99$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.9971249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e1…fbb9backed Weibo Gaming62c314.63$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Weibo Gaming60c303.41$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.412,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Weibo Gaming11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3322250.5%112 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c86…9f68backed Weibo Gaming37c299.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010847.2%51 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.