TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Kingston: Juan Carlos Prado vs Juan Pablo Ficovich

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Juan Carlos Pradoof Juan Carlos Prado, Juan Pablo Ficovich
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,734 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb00c…dfa2backed Juan Carlos Prado57c13,539$7,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,760.829951.5%51 W · 48 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Juan Carlos Prado64c10,097$6,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.358,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Juan Pablo Ficovich43c8,000$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,44017148%82 W · 89 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49e0…9af1backed Juan Carlos Prado61c6,562$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,561.7211566.1%76 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Juan Pablo Ficovich43c4,245$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.2111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Juan Carlos Prado57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72037450%187 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Juan Pablo Ficovich14c3,571$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.941,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Juan Pablo Ficovich42c2,598$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.331,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…a2d1backed Juan Pablo Ficovich40c2,499$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Juan Pablo Ficovich40c2,180$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8636450%32 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich43c2,000$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.663,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Juan Pablo Ficovich36c1,769$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.323,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Juan Pablo Ficovich42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5978840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Juan Pablo Ficovich39c1,167$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.088,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1680…490dbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich42c1,074$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4483537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ea6…0890backed Juan Pablo Ficovich2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207724.7%19 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Juan Pablo Ficovich5c850.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5936946.9%173 W · 196 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71bf…f6edbacked Juan Carlos Prado57c799.94$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.985961%36 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb347…5166backed Juan Carlos Prado65c772.33$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3121955.3%121 W · 98 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b9…c40bbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich41c713.94$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.721546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Juan Pablo Ficovich43c601.6$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.6985250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Juan Pablo Ficovich47c600$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.669,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Juan Pablo Ficovich43c600$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2587,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Juan Carlos Prado63c499.98$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.99757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Juan Pablo Ficovich52c484$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.842,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Juan Pablo Ficovich8c474.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.382,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich42c412$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6272638.8%282 W · 444 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich36c373.81$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.794,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Juan Pablo Ficovich35c356.43$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.198551.8%44 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Juan Pablo Ficovich43c263.49$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.91,07752.4%564 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Juan Pablo Ficovich35c257.14$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9064350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Juan Pablo Ficovich44c252.27$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106960.9%42 W · 27 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x47c2…d39ebacked Juan Pablo Ficovich41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Juan Pablo Ficovich42c236.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8748947.4%232 W · 257 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Juan Carlos Prado59c212.97$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2130648.4%148 W · 158 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich39c190.69$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2927744.4%123 W · 154 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Juan Pablo Ficovich42c189.07$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4130644.1%135 W · 171 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1207…9795backed Juan Pablo Ficovich35c186.75$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.361330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Juan Pablo Ficovich42c184.5$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…016abacked Juan Carlos Prado49c184$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8437058.4%216 W · 154 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Juan Carlos Prado60c181.5$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ca…1e71backed Juan Pablo Ficovich41c171.51$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe301…9bd9backed Juan Carlos Prado60c167$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Juan Pablo Ficovich43c162.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7028255%155 W · 127 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Juan Pablo Ficovich42c148$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.162,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Juan Pablo Ficovich39c147.82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6524634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0fd…3798backed Juan Pablo Ficovich20c120.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7911618.1%21 W · 95 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-21%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Juan Pablo Ficovich42c108.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.693,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Juan Carlos Prado76c105.73$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.951,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8888…3d5cbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530353.5%162 W · 141 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1e…20aebacked Juan Carlos Prado57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436560%39 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe092…d209backed Juan Carlos Prado55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4519142.4%81 W · 110 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Juan Carlos Prado62c98.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1269545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Juan Pablo Ficovich42c88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.962,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2475…5f8cbacked Juan Carlos Prado57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeec…2f66backed Juan Pablo Ficovich23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021661.1%132 W · 84 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf91e…dc10backed Juan Carlos Prado59c82.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.745933.9%20 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72da…9b77backed Juan Carlos Prado60c81.97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.792429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7db…d23abacked Juan Carlos Prado63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.376556.9%37 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8788…d82abacked Juan Pablo Ficovich41c78.41$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.152755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0e…1cebbacked Juan Carlos Prado64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1320939.7%83 W · 126 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe77…8fe4backed Juan Pablo Ficovich37c76.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.459531.6%30 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich37c76.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.14736.2%17 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Juan Pablo Ficovich40c74.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041045.1%185 W · 225 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2516…51edbacked Juan Carlos Prado65c74.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.215374.5%114 W · 39 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Juan Pablo Ficovich35c74.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.421,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Juan Carlos Prado65c73.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.913,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee3…2e6abacked Juan Pablo Ficovich41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3029945.8%137 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed Juan Carlos Prado57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1810956%61 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Juan Pablo Ficovich36c67.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.382159.4%488 W · 333 L+3.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d1…73edbacked Juan Carlos Prado78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.18867%59 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc369…b1ccbacked Juan Carlos Prado60c63.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3339254.1%212 W · 180 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x298f…b4e1backed Juan Pablo Ficovich41c60.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.944153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3918…d955backed Juan Pablo Ficovich35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Juan Pablo Ficovich25c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0928…215fbacked Juan Carlos Prado60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203545.7%16 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed Juan Carlos Prado58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2121056.2%118 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Juan Carlos Prado69c49.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6234864.1%223 W · 125 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Juan Carlos Prado60c46.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.651,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Juan Carlos Prado60c45.96$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3889859.7%536 W · 362 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Juan Carlos Prado66c45.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6121240.6%86 W · 126 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7f…d002backed Juan Pablo Ficovich44c45.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.022454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Juan Pablo Ficovich36c42.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.431,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfae…155ebacked Juan Pablo Ficovich36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…5df1backed Juan Carlos Prado58c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.865160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Juan Carlos Prado61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7935164.7%227 W · 124 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8087…a213backed Juan Carlos Prado63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4737266.7%248 W · 124 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Juan Pablo Ficovich40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Juan Carlos Prado63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.119347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb1…b109backed Juan Pablo Ficovich42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Juan Pablo Ficovich36c29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4470254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Juan Carlos Prado63c26.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9820558.5%120 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe4…f12fbacked Juan Carlos Prado61c26.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2958665.5%384 W · 202 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Juan Carlos Prado59c24.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.961,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Juan Carlos Prado72c21.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.868072.5%58 W · 22 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8969…2a77backed Juan Carlos Prado55c20.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.116976.8%53 W · 16 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.