TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roehampton: Lui Maxted vs Patrick Brady

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lui Maxtedof Lui Maxted, Patrick Brady
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$185,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,128 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Patrick Brady28c14,762$4,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,188.759,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Lui Maxted70c13,816$9,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,144.9363556.7%360 W · 275 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Lui Maxted61c10,099$6,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,941.6618959.8%113 W · 76 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Patrick Brady27c7,999$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.511,51224.1%364 W · 1,148 L-41.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked Patrick Brady51c6,502$3,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,31652661.2%322 W · 204 L+1.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lui Maxted64c5,298$3,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.578,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Lui Maxted56c4,954$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.834,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lui Maxted58c4,073$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.198,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Lui Maxted51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.571,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Patrick Brady43c3,877$1,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,667.3221147.9%101 W · 110 L-16.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fd2…afcebacked Patrick Brady33c3,088$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.658341%34 W · 49 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Patrick Brady46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f00…0e92backed Lui Maxted62c2,205$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.981241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Patrick Brady8c1,816$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.369757.9%77 W · 898 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Lui Maxted64c1,690$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.551,40442.8%601 W · 803 L-31.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Lui Maxted49c1,637$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.123,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Lui Maxted68c1,618$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.555749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa08…d98abacked Lui Maxted62c1,609$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.7925661.3%157 W · 99 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072f…ffddbacked Patrick Brady29c1,520$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.817143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Patrick Brady23c1,504$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.7652644.3%233 W · 293 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x928c…0f9ebacked Patrick Brady35c1,394$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.833132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Lui Maxted65c1,338$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.125,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Lui Maxted71c1,285$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.961,82446.5%849 W · 975 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a2…704cbacked Patrick Brady16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014518.6%27 W · 118 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a8…1ad4backed Lui Maxted60c1,221$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.555747.4%27 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Patrick Brady34c1,211$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.143,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Lui Maxted64c1,200$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.8811055.5%61 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb76b…d1f0backed Lui Maxted56c1,072$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.65349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Patrick Brady37c1,069$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.521,78548.7%869 W · 916 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Patrick Brady56c1,010$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.441,07136.8%394 W · 677 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bd2…fa7fbacked Patrick Brady36c1,006$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.1613050.8%66 W · 64 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lui Maxted62c957.63$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.8111,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Lui Maxted77c920.22$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.9374654.8%409 W · 337 L+46.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Lui Maxted75c867.2$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.834655.2%191 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d10…b3d0backed Lui Maxted52c854.81$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.2182659.3%490 W · 336 L+3.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Patrick Brady56c840$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.614756.5%83 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Patrick Brady32c832.65$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.4379238.3%303 W · 489 L-15.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Patrick Brady58c825$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.464,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1602…fbb0backed Lui Maxted50c800.2$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.23259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+43.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Patrick Brady40c798$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.224952.2%130 W · 119 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Lui Maxted67c709.79$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.321,74548.1%840 W · 905 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Lui Maxted58c676.13$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.131,03050%515 W · 515 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc357…3684backed Lui Maxted46c648.74$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.798046.3%37 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Patrick Brady40c638.3$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.562,83947.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Lui Maxted57c630.39$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.0737540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Lui Maxted61c594.17$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.576,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c0b…c814backed Lui Maxted54c551$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.4640659.9%243 W · 163 L+30.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Lui Maxted61c538.63$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0295658.2%556 W · 400 L+19.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Patrick Brady40c514.57$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.641,06650.1%534 W · 532 L+48.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb347…5166backed Patrick Brady47c494.06$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.2122154.8%121 W · 100 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…ecf5backed Patrick Brady32c491.85$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.212951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe839…0a9dbacked Lui Maxted54c489.61$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2241758.5%244 W · 173 L+24.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf068…849cbacked Lui Maxted62c481.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.867255.6%40 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Patrick Brady17c450$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7819131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Patrick Brady54c447.8$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24046255.8%258 W · 204 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7787…bf58backed Patrick Brady46c442.26$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4415546.5%72 W · 83 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Patrick Brady32c441$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.781,63252.7%860 W · 772 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4abd…5a5cbacked Lui Maxted54c440$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.441758.5%244 W · 173 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5818…5269backed Patrick Brady22c420.05$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.418933.7%30 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Lui Maxted41c418.93$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.171,57939.8%629 W · 950 L-34.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Lui Maxted70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12014858.8%87 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Lui Maxted56c393.33$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9735550.7%180 W · 175 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Lui Maxted63c343.52$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.861,07654.8%590 W · 486 L+14.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Patrick Brady29c340.45$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.71,87759.4%1,115 W · 762 L+8.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Lui Maxted28c339.14$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.181,45645.1%656 W · 800 L+42.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f4…6794backed Lui Maxted54c328$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8837853.7%203 W · 175 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafee…881ebacked Lui Maxted59c320$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.26746.3%31 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8468…3860backed Patrick Brady37c310.11$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11524431.1%76 W · 168 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf092…5749backed Patrick Brady50c302.04$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3679…492ebacked Lui Maxted54c281$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2631053.5%166 W · 144 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab70…774cbacked Patrick Brady46c278.36$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2516957.4%97 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Lui Maxted56c262.45$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4829354.9%161 W · 132 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d26…ca0ebacked Lui Maxted53c255.56$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9419251%98 W · 94 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Lui Maxted79c253$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.131,92655.4%1,067 W · 859 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Patrick Brady40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027051.5%139 W · 131 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Patrick Brady47c248.77$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9218741.2%77 W · 110 L+0.9wins0.00per pick41cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f9…d394backed Patrick Brady39c245.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5512441.1%51 W · 73 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Lui Maxted65c243.53$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.461,87853.2%1,000 W · 878 L+30.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeec…2f66backed Lui Maxted62c240.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1422361.4%137 W · 86 L+12.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Lui Maxted54c240$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.437345%168 W · 205 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a2e…37cabacked Lui Maxted63c238.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.297661.8%47 W · 29 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Patrick Brady35c236.84$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8944144.7%197 W · 244 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Patrick Brady38c236$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6863440.9%259 W · 375 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea2…3e80backed Lui Maxted79c235.19$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.496075%45 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e0e…1cebbacked Patrick Brady22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024039.2%94 W · 146 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Lui Maxted61c208$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.381,31439%512 W · 802 L-23.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Patrick Brady39c206.03$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.012,77653.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L+69.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Lui Maxted48c200.2$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.229,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3020…bc04backed Lui Maxted50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007848.7%38 W · 40 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Patrick Brady37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410945.9%50 W · 59 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f95…bf8ebacked Lui Maxted50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007939.2%31 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30ce…d485backed Lui Maxted50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008343.4%36 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Lui Maxted77c198.68$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.716,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Patrick Brady32c192.26$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3456926%148 W · 421 L-23.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Lui Maxted53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6848258.1%280 W · 202 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5c…91fcbacked Lui Maxted55c180.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8545451.3%233 W · 221 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Patrick Brady39c180$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.461,90444.1%839 W · 1,065 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Patrick Brady48c163.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.727,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa261…af5bbacked Lui Maxted42c159.62$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7414254.9%78 W · 64 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd32e…b577backed Lui Maxted54c158.75$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.0242159.1%249 W · 172 L+25.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.