TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Italyof Mexico, Italy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$288,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,779 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe42c…7297backed Mexico0c19,870$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Mexico63c18,686$11,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,772.179035.6%32 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4565…6549backed Mexico0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Italy37c10,813$3,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,860.261050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe037…c96ebacked Mexico0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Italy37c9,465$3,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,963.451030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Italy31c9,309$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,384.031,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Italy52c8,678$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,177.6215550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Mexico69c7,872$5,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,464.931,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Italy38c7,698$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,773.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Italy31c6,582$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,530.5114953%79 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Mexico68c6,017$4,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,071.574555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Mexico23c5,632$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.845448.1%26 W · 28 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f90…a473backed Mexico70c5,522$3,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,868.861060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Mexico8c5,461$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.4723036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Mexico11c3,997$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.711,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Italy36c3,869$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.282951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Mexico19c3,698$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.4121842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Italy38c3,440$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,132.813461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x691f…5e69backed Mexico3c2,882$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.581050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd39…234fbacked Mexico64c2,642$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e2…2c81backed Italy36c2,642$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…8a41backed Mexico7c2,590$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.881241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Italy28c2,420$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.3620548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Mexico67c2,329$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Mexico7c2,255$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.385928.8%17 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Mexico72c2,115$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.3440846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa206…ab03backed Mexico62c2,056$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Italy37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3717…e6dcbacked Mexico25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Mexico63c1,935$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.0311456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd36…6ec9backed Italy28c1,882$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.172254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Italy64c1,714$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.552,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Mexico70c1,650$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1551241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Mexico2c1,600$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.281145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Mexico67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Italy27c1,449$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.765248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Mexico6c1,385$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3496133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Mexico71c1,373$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.378948.3%43 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3e…ca47backed Italy79c1,372$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.69580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5391…f44abacked Mexico71c1,347$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-64.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Italy33c1,335$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.3684049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mexico69c1,300$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.6446547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Mexico5c1,275$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.971,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Italy33c1,210$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.7312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb149…0a3dbacked Mexico64c1,137$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.611435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5f…db04backed Mexico18c1,106$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mexico13c1,082$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4985235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Italy29c1,081$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.64580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+71.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d74…2759backed Mexico70c1,059$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.7223545.1%106 W · 129 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa3…d08bbacked Italy72c1,046$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.752763%17 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2f…3531backed Mexico52c1,042$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.991752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Mexico32c1,022$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.3694034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Mexico19c1,008$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.326524.6%16 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0571…78bebacked Italy30c1,007$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.171040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Mexico1c1,001$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.543929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Mexico64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6401643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf26…609fbacked Italy29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Italy48c956.06$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.864459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cc…bfaabacked Mexico4c936.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405343.4%23 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Italy28c934$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.624544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Italy33c929.55$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.81,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Mexico71c848.62$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.5223351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Mexico3c811.52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82336.1%2 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d7…e17cbacked Mexico64c777.34$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…9f3bbacked Italy37c747$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Italy29c695$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.051457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Italy53c658.74$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.746653%35 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70d…dd35backed Mexico66c610.96$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-75%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Italy77c574$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.748644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Italy32c569.74$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.837247.2%34 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Mexico26c565.01$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2914039.3%55 W · 85 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Mexico21c561.98$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11711844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed Italy37c535.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.47966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+109.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2bc…2450backed Italy38c523.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.69425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Mexico7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe803…0416backed Mexico10c494.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-72.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Mexico66c490$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.36145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Mexico64c468.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008159.3%48 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Italy29c461.15$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.198355.4%46 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fd5…b12abacked Mexico55c456.27$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Mexico71c438.26$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.711,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Italy75c410.3$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.571,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c2…1395backed Italy52c409.41$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.87520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-61.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…8d4cbacked Italy32c405.05$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+161.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e2…5ec0backed Mexico38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe87…062abacked Mexico29c379.79$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…089abacked Mexico50c375.8$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.43933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4543…38acbacked Mexico7c367.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Italy29c362.98$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.351,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6970…ef65backed Mexico64c356.38$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.084238.1%16 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Italy35c354.29$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.293551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked Mexico66c350$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316346%29 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55e9…150dbacked Italy30c334.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.45850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+65.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked Italy32c306.25$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.2510850.9%55 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2286…3ccfbacked Mexico66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+115.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Italy31c300$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20736729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ae…6fc3backed Mexico67c297.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.711540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+190.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed Mexico66c289.18$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.22166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Mexico34c287.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.912850%64 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.