TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs MOUZ NXT - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
SPARTAof SPARTA, MOUZ NXT
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,389 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x10d7…bbf6backed SPARTA51c7,158$3,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,526.8319468.6%133 W · 61 L+25.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+12.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed MOUZ NXT52c7,000$3,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,631.8312344.7%55 W · 68 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed MOUZ NXT42c5,758$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,421.014650%23 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6421…045dbacked MOUZ NXT46c2,317$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.0116248.1%78 W · 84 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed SPARTA52c2,295$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.0554732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3171…b991backed MOUZ NXT54c2,035$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100922.2%2 W · 7 L-4.1wins-0.45per pick67cpaid-70.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked MOUZ NXT50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed SPARTA65c1,989$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.941,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed MOUZ NXT41c1,458$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.535,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcd…0a69backed SPARTA39c1,416$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.969349.5%46 W · 47 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked SPARTA56c1,347$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.591,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed SPARTA49c1,299$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.9923356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed SPARTA54c999.98$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9943455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed SPARTA57c978.44$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.619850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked SPARTA52c901.29$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.463,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked SPARTA72c800.37$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.161,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed SPARTA46c753.87$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.022133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked MOUZ NXT35c743.55$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.5875245.3%341 W · 411 L-1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed SPARTA56c703$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.285,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked MOUZ NXT44c688$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.334542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed SPARTA49c600.13$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.852,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked MOUZ NXT36c585.71$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.5822241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed SPARTA58c545.16$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.882,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed SPARTA58c529.28$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.38061.3%49 W · 31 L+7.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked SPARTA58c529.28$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.35560%33 W · 22 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked SPARTA58c527.76$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.667644.7%34 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed SPARTA60c505$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2023438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked SPARTA37c500$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.7411831.4%37 W · 81 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed SPARTA56c500$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.8237557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed SPARTA56c445.32$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.391,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed MOUZ NXT30c423.4$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0248240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ NXT35c380.87$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.857,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked SPARTA75c373.79$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.142,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed SPARTA74c317.08$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.125752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ NXT37c302.11$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.064,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed SPARTA69c291.57$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.822,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ NXT50c277.97$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.891,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked SPARTA61c277.72$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.213,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked SPARTA70c272$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.055,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed MOUZ NXT32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8028843.1%124 W · 164 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked SPARTA54c232.73$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3750358.6%295 W · 208 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed SPARTA53c207.77$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8469445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed MOUZ NXT26c204.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.671,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1522…70febacked SPARTA52c200$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9736645.6%167 W · 199 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked SPARTA60c193$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.763,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked SPARTA54c192.27$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.964,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07e8…faaebacked SPARTA55c190.08$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3415346.4%71 W · 82 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed SPARTA53c187.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2127438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d24…cf3fbacked MOUZ NXT67c180.9$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick67cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed SPARTA58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.631749.5%157 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed MOUZ NXT48c177.37$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1419748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb299…e70abacked SPARTA48c173.79$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed MOUZ NXT15c170.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.272,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed SPARTA47c164.27$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6780942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4011…4a39backed MOUZ NXT41c154.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638038.8%31 W · 49 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e9…b2e0backed SPARTA68c145.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.992766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked SPARTA52c145.38$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.132,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed SPARTA39c140.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.361,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33f1…7a59backed SPARTA59c130.55$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2418543.2%80 W · 105 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5440…f13bbacked SPARTA57c120.23$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.711952.1%62 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dd…005dbacked MOUZ NXT48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked SPARTA59c101.07$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.612,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b88…16e6backed MOUZ NXT30c100.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9815823.4%37 W · 121 L-18.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-44.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x76b9…a687backed MOUZ NXT10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…2ad3backed MOUZ NXT60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed SPARTA71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2952150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed MOUZ NXT62c98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.762,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed MOUZ NXT26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2539038.5%150 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1c…d47dbacked MOUZ NXT54c95.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d25…1c06backed MOUZ NXT45c92.07$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.432055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked SPARTA56c91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9220447.1%96 W · 108 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5439…c45bbacked MOUZ NXT64c90.77$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.891866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked SPARTA52c90$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.352,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed SPARTA53c90$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.329543.1%127 W · 168 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed SPARTA56c82.93$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5672139.7%286 W · 435 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f6e…d7b3backed MOUZ NXT36c75.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked SPARTA61c74.89$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.381,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked SPARTA64c69.66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0819050%95 W · 95 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc1d…9332backed SPARTA39c69.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.145850%29 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0c…da03backed MOUZ NXT34c68.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235046%23 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed SPARTA50c68.16$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0810036%36 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed SPARTA48c66.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5661054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MOUZ NXT49c66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.032,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed SPARTA73c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.726,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked SPARTA65c63.71$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5919236.5%70 W · 122 L-15.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0010…c3a8backed SPARTA67c61.49$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4931673.7%233 W · 83 L+23.6wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked MOUZ NXT53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked SPARTA50c59.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7528037.9%106 W · 174 L-17.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed SPARTA62c58.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2910452.9%55 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf1…09b7backed MOUZ NXT41c58.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2411140.5%45 W · 66 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed SPARTA45c55.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3938131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed MOUZ NXT33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31,84847.6%879 W · 969 L-55.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed MOUZ NXT33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.321750.7%110 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked MOUZ NXT48c45.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.781,06855%587 W · 481 L-1.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked MOUZ NXT53c45.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed MOUZ NXT60c43.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.875356.6%30 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf795…5e34backed MOUZ NXT36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.37027.1%19 W · 51 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed SPARTA62c35.18$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.234,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed MOUZ NXT44c33.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5270042.3%296 W · 404 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd2…0985backed MOUZ NXT32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105151%26 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.