TailMyPicks

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Europa Conference League · resolved market

FC Midtjylland vs. Beşiktaş JK: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Beşiktaş JKof FC Midtjylland, Beşiktaş JK
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,566
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,566 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9ce…3117backed Beşiktaş JK72c54,607$39,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,171.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Midtjylland36c5,072$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,816.7596947.5%460 W · 509 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked FC Midtjylland37c5,000$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,838.358549.4%42 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked FC Midtjylland34c4,619$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.84911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked FC Midtjylland33c4,415$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.512218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4d…3ac6backed FC Midtjylland5c3,531$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed FC Midtjylland33c3,526$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.4738144.1%168 W · 213 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FC Midtjylland36c3,322$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.911,03950%520 W · 519 L+26.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed FC Midtjylland34c3,028$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e8…7c26backed FC Midtjylland35c2,694$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed FC Midtjylland34c2,648$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.95343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed FC Midtjylland8c2,532$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.563917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed FC Midtjylland38c2,500$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.5266150.5%334 W · 327 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FC Midtjylland34c2,500$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.9337046.5%172 W · 198 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed FC Midtjylland32c2,084$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.2216446.3%76 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ac9…e1cfbacked FC Midtjylland8c2,016$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.72616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked FC Midtjylland47c2,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.131947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4079…8735backed FC Midtjylland38c1,976$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe6…4a1bbacked FC Midtjylland11c1,725$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.453956.4%22 W · 17 L+10.1wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+330.1%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Beşiktaş JK61c1,471$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.965563.6%35 W · 20 L+8.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed FC Midtjylland37c1,388$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.461,02247.5%485 W · 537 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked FC Midtjylland36c1,388$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0488048.2%424 W · 456 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Midtjylland35c1,330$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.662,99042.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L+9.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed FC Midtjylland38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009538.9%37 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed Beşiktaş JK62c1,312$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked FC Midtjylland40c1,198$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.0369448.8%339 W · 355 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Midtjylland31c1,162$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.1478344.8%351 W · 432 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b3…b35cbacked FC Midtjylland3c1,137$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb1…e05ebacked FC Midtjylland34c1,095$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+77.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e6…4c4ebacked FC Midtjylland3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc581…0f24backed FC Midtjylland37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0160…c757backed FC Midtjylland3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e8…9490backed FC Midtjylland3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Beşiktaş JK53c990.27$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.431030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FC Midtjylland35c964.87$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.756849.6%282 W · 286 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Beşiktaş JK59c899.15$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.655350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Midtjylland33c835.36$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.363857.2%365 W · 273 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked FC Midtjylland34c750$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked FC Midtjylland26c697.17$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.864852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed FC Midtjylland37c670.27$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2482356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked FC Midtjylland36c650.01$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.637440.5%30 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked FC Midtjylland37c637.61$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.712524%6 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed FC Midtjylland35c595.19$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.324645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x454b…5b8bbacked FC Midtjylland35c540$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1893046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7119…db8dbacked FC Midtjylland42c512.67$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Midtjylland37c486.01$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.881,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FC Midtjylland37c294.7$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.681,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Beşiktaş JK63c294.65$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.021963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x223a…f30ebacked FC Midtjylland35c274.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b8…e424backed FC Midtjylland41c250.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.91837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked FC Midtjylland37c228$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.643237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed FC Midtjylland37c208.11$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775459.3%32 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed FC Midtjylland36c206.18$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.695632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b46…8438backed FC Midtjylland41c196.44$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed FC Midtjylland37c183.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5412057.5%69 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed FC Midtjylland40c175.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017447.7%83 W · 91 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked FC Midtjylland39c173.8$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.525236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc59…35f7backed Beşiktaş JK59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.493348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e4d…1a1fbacked FC Midtjylland37c162.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ae…2ff5backed FC Midtjylland9c148.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FC Midtjylland24c146.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5979532.2%256 W · 539 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92c…d27ebacked Beşiktaş JK70c141.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.87475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e4…db33backed Beşiktaş JK67c137.61$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.612272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+34.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked Beşiktaş JK59c135.59$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.592060%12 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+102.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x232f…8002backed FC Midtjylland33c125.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.31040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f9b…8b23backed FC Midtjylland8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…50d4backed FC Midtjylland8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked FC Midtjylland27c122$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.223246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+82.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked FC Midtjylland9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110627.4%29 W · 77 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked FC Midtjylland38c120$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.62245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…206dbacked FC Midtjylland42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed FC Midtjylland35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.365747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e1…60ebbacked Beşiktaş JK60c109.84$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…6182backed Beşiktaş JK59c101.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.692050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed FC Midtjylland40c93.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2531856%178 W · 140 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed FC Midtjylland33c80.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.53138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafe9…0a3ebacked FC Midtjylland44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62cd…7b19backed Beşiktaş JK59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.82259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+96.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x290a…0994backed FC Midtjylland22c67.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0f0…0f4cbacked FC Midtjylland23c66.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed FC Midtjylland39c63.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513046.9%61 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Midtjylland38c61.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.382,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked FC Midtjylland32c54.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.452642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed FC Midtjylland37c54.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe668…7a6bbacked Beşiktaş JK59c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.14650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7597…1b3dbacked FC Midtjylland36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa146…6163backed FC Midtjylland42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Beşiktaş JK61c46.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.882657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Beşiktaş JK64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1311168.5%76 W · 35 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Beşiktaş JK64c44.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.068366.3%55 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb53b…73f5backed FC Midtjylland58c43.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf854…8e03backed FC Midtjylland38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Beşiktaş JK59c37.28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2839357.5%226 W · 167 L+17.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Beşiktaş JK67c35.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.822864.3%18 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Beşiktaş JK67c34.01$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.061,11435.8%399 W · 715 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0789…f7adbacked Beşiktaş JK59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b66…582fbacked Beşiktaş JK59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc951…6791backed Beşiktaş JK59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a2…362bbacked Beşiktaş JK59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ea…fa08backed Beşiktaş JK59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.