NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a472d7b01a02446c761e56fb6c6656b706527d59bf3e86e1efd722969ceff6

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Clippersof Spurs, Clippers
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,449 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Spurs	46c	21,587$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	365	49.6%181 W · 184 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Clippers	54c	10,110$5,459 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,650.38	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Clippers	53c	9,265$4,949 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,315.9	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Spurs	44c	3,156$1,389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,388.66	127	45.7%58 W · 69 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Clippers	55c	1,780$979 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800.99	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs	40c	1,550$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.78	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919c…06d8backed Spurs	45c	1,127$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.15	198	52%103 W · 95 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Clippers	56c	1,057$592 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.14	140	59.3%83 W · 57 L	+8.7wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Spurs	46c	1,019$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.27	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Clippers	56c	961.39$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.79	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Clippers	55c	909.62$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$409.62	509	54.8%279 W · 230 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa182…03fabacked Clippers	54c	800$432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368	89	49.4%44 W · 45 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Clippers	62c	795.99$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.48	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers	54c	765$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.9	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Spurs	45c	700$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	43	67.4%29 W · 14 L	+6.3wins	+0.15per pick	53cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x499a…7d67backed Spurs	45c	542.13$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.96	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Clippers	54c	536.96$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.48	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Clippers	55c	492.88$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.8	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Clippers	55c	489.53$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.61	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed Spurs	46c	434.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	108	49.1%53 W · 55 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Clippers	57c	400$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Clippers	50c	399.98$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.49	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Clippers	61c	384$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.76	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs	49c	323.41$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.88	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Clippers	57c	293.93$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.39	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Spurs	45c	276$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.2	239	46.4%111 W · 128 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Clippers	55c	265.41$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.43	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54fe…5850backed Clippers	56c	250$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Spurs	44c	240.69$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.56	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Clippers	56c	190$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.6	619	57.5%356 W · 263 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Clippers	56c	178$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.32	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691f…5e69backed Clippers	76c	174$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.04	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Clippers	60c	159.08$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.99	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Clippers	53c	151.68$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.29	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Clippers	55c	145.45$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.45	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Clippers	56c	134.13$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.13	170	46.5%79 W · 91 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Spurs	45c	130.42$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.69	558	46.8%261 W · 297 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Spurs	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	257	53.7%138 W · 119 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…0272backed Spurs	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	182	33%60 W · 122 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Clippers	55c	99$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.55	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86a8…d0e7backed Clippers	56c	96.43$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.43	109	55%60 W · 49 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…5976backed Clippers	56c	92.32$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.62	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Clippers	56c	91.95$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.62	191	35.6%68 W · 123 L	-9.3wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Clippers	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x584c…0da9backed Clippers	56c	87$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.28	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Clippers	61c	84.11$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.81	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Spurs	44c	80$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Clippers	56c	80$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.2	375	49.6%186 W · 189 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Spurs	46c	77.25$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.54	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Clippers	55c	67.45$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.64	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Spurs	43c	56.56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Spurs	45c	55.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Clippers	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Clippers	55c	49.62$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.33	576	50%288 W · 288 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Clippers	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-5.6wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Clippers	55c	40.75$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.34	179	60.9%109 W · 70 L	+17.7wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Spurs	45c	39.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xc8fa…d338backed Clippers	54c	38.71$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.71	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x142d…bf73backed Clippers	55c	36.38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.37	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa330…9d33backed Clippers	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb789…5d6abacked Clippers	54c	35.67$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Spurs	46c	35.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.41	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Spurs	50c	35.27$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b21…05ecbacked Spurs	47c	32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-5.4wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xba2b…0c59backed Spurs	45c	30.22$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.7wins	+0.27per pick	43cpaid	+59%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Clippers	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	390	55.6%217 W · 173 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Spurs	41c	29.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	106	37.7%40 W · 66 L	+9.3wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89bc…a463backed Clippers	55c	28.4$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.73	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Spurs	44c	23.39$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	609	45.8%279 W · 330 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Spurs	47c	22.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Clippers	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	161	50.9%82 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)this page
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Clippers won
Brook Lopez: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Clippers vs. SpursSpurs won
Clippers vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineClippers won
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5Over won
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5Over won
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5Over won
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5Over won
Clippers vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Over won
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Keldon Johnson: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Clippers won
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Clippers won
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Spurs (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event