TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuning 2: Keegan Smith vs Li Tu

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Li Tuof Keegan Smith, Li Tu
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,055 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca1…dd13backed Li Tu55c15,336$8,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,973.244645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…5104backed Keegan Smith69c14,531$10,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,025.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Li Tu60c5,432$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.555466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5a…4a26backed Li Tu66c4,602$3,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.142259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Keegan Smith44c4,355$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.2720459.3%121 W · 83 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Keegan Smith60c4,184$2,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.934,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Keegan Smith44c3,494$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.72,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb03…1a23backed Li Tu56c3,447$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.794833.3%16 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+64.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cea…b12dbacked Keegan Smith44c3,037$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.127427%20 W · 54 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Keegan Smith42c2,901$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.421,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42f3…5d8ebacked Keegan Smith71c2,392$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.618465.5%55 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Li Tu42c2,373$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.28,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Keegan Smith71c2,342$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.8514264.8%92 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Li Tu59c2,337$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.5631234.6%108 W · 204 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Keegan Smith40c2,276$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.026,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Li Tu75c2,258$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.4944448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Keegan Smith45c2,217$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.42,43350.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L+81.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Li Tu59c2,161$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.0297745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Keegan Smith70c2,093$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.3662061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Li Tu61c1,884$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.196,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Li Tu33c1,779$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.6211,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Li Tu38c1,544$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.8699139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x896d…cd2cbacked Keegan Smith73c1,490$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.6617357.8%100 W · 73 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Keegan Smith70c1,424$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.916946.4%32 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48d…5182backed Keegan Smith75c1,318$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.8324558.8%144 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Keegan Smith70c1,288$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.291,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b6…3e3cbacked Keegan Smith51c1,227$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc64c…e605backed Li Tu32c1,208$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.191931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13bb…a36cbacked Li Tu60c1,156$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.1611857.6%68 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca4…1785backed Li Tu65c1,069$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.995068%34 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Li Tu46c1,066$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.354,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Li Tu56c1,053$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.393,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Keegan Smith77c1,024$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.0941251%210 W · 202 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Keegan Smith53c1,009$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.811,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Li Tu59c1,002$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.6815248%73 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Keegan Smith73c998.03$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.1133163.7%211 W · 120 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Keegan Smith42c992.02$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.759051.1%46 W · 44 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Keegan Smith37c946.46$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.992,08952.2%1,090 W · 999 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Keegan Smith41c941.07$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8429444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Keegan Smith43c889.82$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.6218250%91 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Li Tu61c859.21$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.022,13556%1,195 W · 940 L+41.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Li Tu55c847.05$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.684,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…3fadbacked Keegan Smith47c843.5$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Li Tu34c842.89$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.741,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Li Tu48c829.3$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.821,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Li Tu50c809.76$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.364,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4925…4f82backed Li Tu58c802.39$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Keegan Smith42c791.6$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.4712235.2%43 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46dc…92c3backed Li Tu35c788.48$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.8223949.4%118 W · 121 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e0…7387backed Keegan Smith45c782$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.94143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e11…e1f5backed Keegan Smith40c779.83$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.121451.4%110 W · 104 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked Keegan Smith71c741.02$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.1221567.4%145 W · 70 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Li Tu58c706.54$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.091,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb882…fcabbacked Keegan Smith56c701.45$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.327349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Li Tu58c699.98$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.997357.5%42 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed Keegan Smith50c655.19$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.268447.6%40 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Keegan Smith45c642.22$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.131,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Li Tu56c591.86$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4296035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Li Tu60c578.07$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.2352460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1501…a163backed Keegan Smith62c554.32$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.572065%13 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Li Tu72c534.1$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.537257.5%214 W · 158 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Keegan Smith34c510.46$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9937741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Keegan Smith42c506.73$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.045,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Li Tu58c501.06$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5543449.1%213 W · 221 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Li Tu53c489.73$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0693048.8%454 W · 476 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Li Tu62c474.73$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.072,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Keegan Smith55c465.16$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.819,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Keegan Smith45c446.84$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8884736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Keegan Smith73c399.99$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9930857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Keegan Smith42c393.36$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.211,01846.8%476 W · 542 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Keegan Smith47c389.03$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.581,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xfd49…03b8backed Keegan Smith52c373.43$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.662751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c04…8c0abacked Keegan Smith39c370.54$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.511030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Li Tu32c355.5$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.121,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Keegan Smith41c349.73$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.391,51224.1%364 W · 1,148 L-41.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Keegan Smith40c348.68$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.0648453.7%260 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Li Tu58c347.44$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6921754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x893d…d65bbacked Li Tu28c341.71$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.032365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb611…188fbacked Keegan Smith42c338.08$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.135451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Li Tu58c336.14$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1868350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Keegan Smith41c334.26$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7673549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x796c…49dbbacked Li Tu60c324.37$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.758448.8%41 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Keegan Smith47c321.03$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.625,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…b6c9backed Li Tu61c318.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4611865.3%77 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a6a…9c4cbacked Keegan Smith35c307.6$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0412854.7%70 W · 58 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Li Tu49c306.35$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.6819167%128 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e71…f347backed Li Tu32c299.12$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.42050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Li Tu35c298.55$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.0461752.5%324 W · 293 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Keegan Smith64c295.06$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.885944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Keegan Smith37c292.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0615948.4%77 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Keegan Smith49c287.5$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.686,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9901…e9b4backed Keegan Smith73c287.43$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.795050%25 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…8237backed Keegan Smith62c255.95$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.2116560%99 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Keegan Smith11c253$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0529039.3%114 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Keegan Smith38c249.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9539941.9%167 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e1…f17fbacked Li Tu60c247.25$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.924463.5%155 W · 89 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Li Tu57c245.02$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2632247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Li Tu57c242.49$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0429652.4%155 W · 141 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d91…40d3backed Li Tu47c238.38$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3548630.9%150 W · 336 L+2.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe22…b709backed Li Tu54c235.81$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4612656.3%71 W · 55 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.