TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "11.22.63" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,258 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75d4…4027backed Yes36c12,303$4,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9004665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa22…27febacked Yes44c3,320$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.25944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+154.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No42c2,908$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.844250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Yes31c2,287$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.7811637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes52c2,081$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.3248236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Yes22c1,308$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.425822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No61c1,240$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.952231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2891…8d93backed No66c1,195$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.790%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No67c1,096$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.072236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No62c895.82$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.0314628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c7…5572backed No29c881.46$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed No28c832$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.956328.6%18 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes44c830$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.5424634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No14c797$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8433123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8500…3de4backed No22c600$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.93944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes46c542.26$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.422365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+108.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe126…b313backed No20c507.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed Yes41c460.99$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.963850%19 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c1…c36bbacked No74c460.48$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…5124backed Yes40c442.32$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.581050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No66c433.4$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1220668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d9…bffabacked No56c398.89$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…04a2backed No78c319.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa488…379dbacked No33c300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5089…cec5backed Yes36c291$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10fb…4651backed No17c290.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.34160%0 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd61…ac77backed No36c279.09$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa78f…135cbacked No43c247$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332b…d5bcbacked No14c245.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44db…e66fbacked No74c241.23$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.65560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No29c232.01$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.729745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x9dfb…e887backed No65c218.85$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.392142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No11c200.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.255324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a58…da14backed No60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes34c178$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.512539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6a…a71dbacked No35c175.66$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.32832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes30c167.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0817540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fc…c078backed No78c162$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.923256.3%18 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes29c145.68$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.552045%9 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+61.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8929…22b1backed No63c145$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.051010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bcc…9488backed No70c142.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed No77c130.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No70c130.2$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe82…7056backed No14c129$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4d12backed No79c127.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked No20c126.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90fa…d7f0backed No80c125.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-55.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e9…1f44backed No76c120$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.72540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-47.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2386…1722backed No78c120$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d3…fd3bbacked No70c114.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No57c110.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb880…c0f9backed No78c110$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.98450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.11233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9551…8c45backed No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.261442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b9c…a838backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes46c98.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.775831%18 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes71c95.53$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8514337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes27c95.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.9817010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x654e…a835backed No34c88.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4970…13d6backed No40c87.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed No12c87.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.231330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c85.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.821,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes42c85.8$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0748414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf988…9996backed No69c70.54$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No65c70$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.420841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e8…76a1backed No50c62.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.295151%26 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe01a…6780backed No19c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe153…c12cbacked No76c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17b3…31d4backed No69c57.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x914d…e1e2backed Yes30c56.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9838…0d8bbacked No30c56.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No52c54.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.76619.7%13 W · 53 L-14.5wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-65%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No73c53.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4119240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59c2…de58backed Yes39c48.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.572536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c43.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4787033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x091d…66b6backed No69c43.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No56c42.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9510139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x414b…f2b3backed No78c38.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x410c…f7f0backed No43c34.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No66c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3120850%104 W · 104 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9cf4backed No65c30.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8854…070cbacked No76c30.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f4…c4f3backed No71c28.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2472…7e36backed No79c27.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d3…720ebacked No53c23.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96a9…ff55backed No65c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.636538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No70c18.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.983036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58f…51d6backed No64c17.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5100…7c4ebacked No69c16.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked No74c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.