TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Agatha Christie's Seven Dials" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,913 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes39c9,425$3,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,687.121816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-73.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes20c5,729$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.444250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75d4…4027backed No39c4,774$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.934665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa22…27febacked No43c4,588$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.85944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+154.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes19c4,170$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7862231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No32c3,063$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.6548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde5e…3a94backed Yes30c2,289$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.483847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a62…8650backed Yes41c1,784$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes10c1,675$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4519440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes53c1,666$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.1814628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No45c1,466$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.0913130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf90a…2235backed Yes29c1,436$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.34650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8500…3de4backed Yes16c1,400$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.97944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Yes14c1,360$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa48…5bbfbacked Yes73c1,336$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2891…8d93backed Yes35c1,218$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.1490%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes68c1,149$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.137627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes30c1,115$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.026328.6%18 W · 45 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes15c1,031$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25e5…6563backed Yes14c996.85$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.681921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes40c894.2$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.5434651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9da…7979backed Yes69c783.1$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.3470%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x332b…d5bcbacked Yes13c710.59$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x548b…8390backed Yes30c702.75$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.452839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfb…e887backed Yes38c680.71$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.552142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02ab…cda4backed Yes45c654.95$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No48c619.86$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.3713650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac03…3840backed Yes9c584.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44db…e66fbacked Yes73c495.66$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No71c381.09$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5920841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes41c374.36$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes66c335.81$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.7110537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38fc…c078backed Yes75c319.19$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.683256.3%18 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes22c303$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.513321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc818…64c8backed Yes78c302.05$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No40c266.3$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.395324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb80f…db5ebacked No44c256$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.42365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+108.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab9f…3b3cbacked Yes33c252.21$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53d…9710backed No49c228.51$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.441163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e9…1f44backed Yes65c210$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-47.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5951…9346backed Yes77c208$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.15450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a58…da14backed Yes60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b49…c6debacked No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…4651backed Yes12c199.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52160%0 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c199.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.061,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa488…379dbacked Yes24c190.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No45c174.76$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b3…31d4backed Yes35c172.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e9…b2e0backed Yes9c172.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes61c168.74$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c150$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1382781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83cd…dbadbacked Yes72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90fa…d7f0backed Yes60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-55.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes61c145.94$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3220668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bcc…9488backed Yes69c143.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x255f…c6d4backed Yes70c143.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb856…8fb6backed No30c141.11$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.27633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes70c140$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9826431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ce…001ebacked Yes76c133.46$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa991…e05bbacked Yes21c128.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee30…a3adbacked No31c118.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed Yes17c117.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.433850%19 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0b8…1133backed Yes74c105.45$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe61d…e172backed Yes78c100.97$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.613246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cac…e0e9backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2815…768dbacked Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b1…83d7backed Yes73c95.01$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x359c…3163backed Yes16c94.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No34c88.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.262045%9 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+61.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No33c85.02$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.295831%18 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes17c85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.084637%17 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No22c78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8422030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x73be…f2d1backed Yes58c78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes63c75.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7119240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8714337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0197…7777backed Yes73c68.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No35c63.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.541,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7476…af2bbacked Yes79c63.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No24c52.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7899…a9d1backed Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed No34c48.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes23c45.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.289745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes79c44.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.85666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde7…89d4backed Yes65c41.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x091d…66b6backed Yes68c39.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5089…cec5backed No43c38.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked No33c37.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+63.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6509…740bbacked Yes75c37.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes65c36.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes34c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9117540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d3…1a34backed Yes73c34.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf0…932ebacked No37c34.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No33c33.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No53c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.476152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No45c32.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7464…71cfbacked Yes76c29.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.78683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8a…333bbacked Yes74c26.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26af…6729backed Yes78c25.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6007…9fa5backed Yes70c25.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a87…02c1backed Yes69c25.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.