TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdd22…9cf4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
106
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 58 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT3754.1%20 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$25
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+75.7%+$37.86
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Grizzlies vs. Nuggetsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Clippers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$12.5
Heat vs. Pelicansbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+108.3%+$27.08
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Pacers vs. Netsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+194.1%+$48.53
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Hawks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+69.5%+$17.37
76ers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+66.7%+$33.33
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 215.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+85.2%+$42.59
Bulls vs. Raptorsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Heat vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Knicks vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+44.9%+$8.99
Thunder vs. Rocketsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+58.7%+$8.81
Spread: Magic (-5.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+100%+$15
Grizzlies vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+150%+$15
Suns vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+96.1%+$14.41
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+40.8%+$8.17
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Austria (-1.5)backed Jordan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.93
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$47.06
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.04
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
All 14 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick52cpaid+65.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+53.8%+$8.08
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+112.8%+$16.91
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+37%+$7.4
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+88.7%+$13.3
All 4 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$4.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$25
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3)backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+92.3%+$13.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+72.4%+$14.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.