TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIAof Team Falcons, FURIA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$213,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$226,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,051 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 268 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2307…3934backed FURIA47c24,495$11,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,918.2623852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Falcons64c17,193$11,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,003.522849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked FURIA35c11,855$4,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,727.012766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Team Falcons49c11,563$5,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,714.1721645.4%98 W · 118 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9823…02dbbacked Team Falcons27c10,765$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.3247055.7%262 W · 208 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x933f…1540backed FURIA59c8,069$4,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.581855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Falcons63c7,726$4,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,867.4960853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed FURIA37c7,500$2,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,724.9567041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Falcons63c6,902$4,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,340.1417148%82 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a346backed Team Falcons64c6,821$4,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3354942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a3…b1dfbacked FURIA43c6,673$2,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,778.8313050%65 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Team Falcons62c6,593$4,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,087.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed FURIA37c6,250$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,937.4916335%57 W · 106 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Team Falcons67c6,217$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,165.2616448.2%79 W · 85 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked FURIA37c6,006$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,782.032729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed FURIA38c6,000$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,739.978042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8541…a367backed FURIA37c5,609$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,549.8928344.2%125 W · 158 L+17.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fdf…ec4bbacked FURIA45c5,186$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,845.984850%24 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Team Falcons63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.9916449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked FURIA40c4,277$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.851,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1034…b26dbacked Team Falcons62c4,012$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Team Falcons65c4,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x289b…ded5backed Team Falcons45c3,985$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.451618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked FURIA34c3,845$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,518.7220855.3%115 W · 93 L+18.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed FURIA35c3,581$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,327.7388242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Team Falcons45c3,311$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.018052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed FURIA36c3,294$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.157152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Falcons63c3,207$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.1425261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked FURIA41c3,202$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,883.911631.9%37 W · 79 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons63c3,175$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Team Falcons63c3,175$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018051.1%92 W · 88 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Team Falcons63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89045848.5%222 W · 236 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d1…8390backed Team Falcons67c2,992$1,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.04520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Team Falcons62c2,961$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.0917249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Team Falcons45c2,897$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.545750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons61c2,746$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66260953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8156…27c2backed Team Falcons61c2,654$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.853548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b3f…4b41backed FURIA38c2,632$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.842748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed FURIA37c2,284$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45025941.3%107 W · 152 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FURIA54c2,147$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.344,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4b…ab60backed FURIA37c2,036$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.263357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Falcons61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.9971645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FURIA44c1,995$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.9953746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team Falcons62c1,916$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.9246949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed FURIA35c1,800$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17411852.5%62 W · 56 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed FURIA38c1,700$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06146340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x464e…1a67backed FURIA47c1,700$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8953053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa71a…e4e2backed Team Falcons66c1,676$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86f8…b0f3backed Team Falcons64c1,645$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0532142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Team Falcons48c1,645$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.319055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x877e…b283backed FURIA37c1,621$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.136350.8%32 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f7…8e2ebacked Team Falcons63c1,610$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.991816.7%3 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-66.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe5c0…3cd3backed FURIA38c1,595$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.522560.4%136 W · 89 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Team Falcons65c1,549$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a68…6525backed FURIA38c1,535$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.79215.2%14 W · 78 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-54.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed FURIA37c1,523$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.3424935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x488b…cc50backed Team Falcons63c1,465$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.951136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96c8…695fbacked FURIA39c1,385$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.621233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed Team Falcons56c1,373$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.9313954.7%76 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked FURIA39c1,299$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.3435550.1%178 W · 177 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Team Falcons41c1,228$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.9930348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed FURIA36c1,200$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76824139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed FURIA51c1,190$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.031,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2f…9765backed Team Falcons63c1,124$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.186960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Team Falcons65c1,071$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.3516349.7%81 W · 82 L-19.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked FURIA35c1,000$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65012145.5%55 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8465…6bbdbacked FURIA36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6409541.1%39 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Team Falcons62c999.96$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.9819660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed FURIA36c999$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.6915749%77 W · 80 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Falcons4c990.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6242057.6%242 W · 178 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0321…bbfabacked Team Falcons64c985.16$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.54546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FURIA39c892.81$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.6175450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed FURIA36c850.46$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.291258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FURIA45c844.45$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.495,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Falcons64c779.42$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.839340.9%38 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Falcons62c777$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.7478639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f27…8ec7backed Team Falcons62c768.05$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.192352.2%12 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked FURIA36c761.14$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.1312328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc759…51edbacked FURIA62c640.37$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.378842%37 W · 51 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b45…7f58backed FURIA35c640$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4163531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc352…a152backed Team Falcons65c637.88$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.621668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed FURIA38c630$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.613353.4%71 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Falcons35c579.8$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.91,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48a5…a903backed FURIA38c550$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34211440.4%46 W · 68 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x677f…1228backed FURIA37c536.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.3813740.9%56 W · 81 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…07d4backed FURIA37c533.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.435352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed FURIA55c518.49$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.6227345.8%125 W · 148 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed FURIA39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.824344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed FURIA35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32528351.9%147 W · 136 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef1a…d048backed FURIA39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30511558.3%67 W · 48 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x511a…68bebacked Team Falcons63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3151070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+67.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FURIA35c499.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32581244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Team Falcons62c485.4$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9526563%167 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x563b…774bbacked Team Falcons64c468.66$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.944959.2%29 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee2…c762backed FURIA44c456.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.351266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked FURIA36c432.44$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.7611353.1%60 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed FURIA34c423.19$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.364552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Team Falcons47c400$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1876240.3%25 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd56a…f728backed Team Falcons66c384.85$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb4d…de5abacked Team Falcons48c383.33$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18424440.6%99 W · 145 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.