TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lakersof Rockets, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,552
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,552 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lakers59c1,524$899 inWon+$624.891,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Rockets41c769.33$315 inLost-$315.421850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked Rockets41c749.07$307 inLost-$307.122817.9%5 W · 23 L-7.1wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-53.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd85a…1d03backed Lakers79c223.09$175 inWon+$47.857570.7%53 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Rockets21c164.44$35 inLost-$34.9831345.7%143 W · 170 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Rockets54c97.24$53 inLost-$52.5141227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Lakers56c89.43$50 inWon+$39.1387049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Lakers46c85$39 inWon+$45.979650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59ce…6f07backed Rockets50c79.61$40 inLost-$39.6121347.9%102 W · 111 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd4…ed07backed Rockets54c45.65$25 inLost-$24.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Rockets47c41.2$19 inLost-$19.3637848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lakers46c40.94$19 inWon+$22.111,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Lakers50c29.1$15 inWon+$14.5514355.2%79 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Lakers50c29.1$15 inWon+$14.551353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.