TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,720 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed No47c3,351$1,572 inWon+$1,779.1279650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40b4…1483backed Yes52c1,855$971 inLost-$971.4214045.7%64 W · 76 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes54c1,517$818 inLost-$818.0539265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No46c625.86$289 inWon+$3375,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Yes46c298.05$136 inLost-$136.127243.1%31 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…036ebacked Yes67c253.89$171 inLost-$170.741414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-69.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes57c126.65$72 inLost-$72.1942348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No48c116.11$56 inWon+$60.3890863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfea…dc29backed Yes52c98.1$51 inLost-$50.967150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed No47c87.26$41 inWon+$45.9729449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes64c59.62$38 inLost-$38.167153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Yes59c33.06$20 inLost-$19.5131748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes58c30.25$18 inLost-$17.5510844.4%48 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No46c25.97$12 inWon+$14.0219352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No51c22.94$12 inWon+$11.2419555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2fc…c481backed No50c20.22$10 inWon+$10.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.