NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe84944a116281c2eeac4ccb0fdeb937405a85299236a1ad5a907a8c4a853ea50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Rockets, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Rockets | 14c | 11,957$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.72 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Rockets | 43c | 7,456$3,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,197.77 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Rockets | 54c | 7,150$3,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,890.64 | 423 | 48%203 W · 220 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lakers | 49c | 5,969$2,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021.59 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 57c | 4,854$2,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c85…94a4backed Lakers | 50c | 4,541$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.75 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Rockets | 46c | 4,203$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.26 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lakers | 55c | 2,572$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.94 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…c31fbacked Rockets | 50c | 2,026$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.34 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…3d96backed Rockets | 52c | 1,457$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.54 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Rockets | 36c | 1,260$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.26 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…036ebacked Rockets | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Rockets | 52c | 933.85$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.6 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Lakers | 50c | 776$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0f…b803backed Rockets | 51c | 761.25$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Lakers | 58c | 739.5$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.59 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Rockets | 41c | 600.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.14 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Rockets | 50c | 581.23$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.61 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Lakers | 58c | 504.2$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.76 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Rockets | 50c | 459.13$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.56 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Rockets | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…2728backed Lakers | 50c | 372.75$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Rockets | 50c | 340$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers | 48c | 327.46$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.71 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Lakers | 45c | 310.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.24 | 272 | 45.6%124 W · 148 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Rockets | 52c | 280.15$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.68 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…9408backed Lakers | 50c | 206.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…dee1backed Lakers | 50c | 199.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Lakers | 49c | 196$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Rockets | 46c | 194$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190f…01f3backed Rockets | 51c | 190.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Rockets | 52c | 189.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…51d6backed Rockets | 52c | 147.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Lakers | 58c | 132.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Lakers | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 209 | 63.2%132 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Rockets | 51c | 129.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Lakers | 49c | 123.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Lakers | 53c | 116.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 423 | 35.9%152 W · 271 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e55…be6fbacked Rockets | 50c | 106.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Rockets | 50c | 102.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lakers | 50c | 100.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1448backed Rockets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed Lakers | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 230 | 43%99 W · 131 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Rockets | 50c | 97.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Lakers | 58c | 96.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Lakers | 47c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…2cd4backed Rockets | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Lakers | 58c | 72.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 50c | 68.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Rockets | 52c | 67.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Rockets | 51c | 66.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rockets | 36c | 64.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d15…8026backed Lakers | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Rockets | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Rockets | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Rockets | 40c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Lakers | 58c | 53.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Rockets | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Rockets | 51c | 50.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Lakers | 58c | 46.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Rockets | 30c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 379 | 30.6%116 W · 263 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Lakers | 70c | 44.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Rockets | 42c | 43.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Lakers | 66c | 43.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Rockets | 50c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lakers | 67c | 39.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Lakers | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 73 | 82.2%60 W · 13 L | +18.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…36c6backed Lakers | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Rockets | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Lakers | 51c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 162 | 30.9%50 W · 112 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…6476backed Lakers | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Lakers | 61c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Kevin Durant: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 24.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Rockets vs. LakersLakers won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 100.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 101.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 209.5Under won
- Rui Hachimura: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.