TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Luke Kennard: Points O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,183 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed No41c1,176$485 inLost-$485.2579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes58c1,095$637 inWon+$458.391,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f83…3af9backed No41c407.95$169 inLost-$169.112025%5 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-45.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No38c134.86$51 inLost-$50.6512642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes59c110.44$65 inWon+$45.2892058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes58c82.43$48 inWon+$34.6297049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No45c80$36 inLost-$3695049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Yes60c67.13$40 inWon+$26.8515650.6%79 W · 77 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Yes59c65$38 inWon+$26.6595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Yes60c63.77$38 inWon+$25.511,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes58c60$35 inWon+$25.230256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Yes59c44.94$27 inWon+$18.4346255.6%257 W · 205 L+22.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes64c27.52$18 inWon+$9.9110844.4%48 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Yes58c22.24$13 inWon+$9.3437652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1193…d9c4backed Yes58c22$13 inWon+$9.242352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Yes60c19.5$12 inWon+$7.838751.2%198 W · 189 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.