TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Amen Thompson: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,207
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,207 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes57c721.7$412 inLost-$411.8739265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c500$210 inWon+$29079650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No40c200$80 inWon+$12056050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d6…2067backed Yes60c124.93$75 inLost-$74.961172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No43c124.19$53 inWon+$70.712642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No40c118.82$48 inWon+$71.291,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes60c113.04$68 inLost-$67.8217547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked No46c102.64$47 inWon+$55.295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf376…d88abacked Yes59c72.38$43 inLost-$42.932536%9 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No47c25.78$12 inWon+$13.6619352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed No44c25$11 inWon+$14.0529449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Yes60c24.4$15 inLost-$14.645360.4%32 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x191b…824abacked Yes53c22$12 inLost-$11.665253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.