Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Lugano win on 2026-08-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6ae6de2dd0487654a908ae27c3224301ca60248d39f669038a5885bdcf5b4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 31c | 5,000$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 29c | 2,199$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.79 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 70c | 1,970$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.72 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 70c | 1,941$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.65 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Yes | 71c | 1,763$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 30c | 1,051$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.37 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 48c | 931.28$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.23 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 69c | 909.41$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.5 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 70c | 608.78$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.15 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked No | 68c | 601$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.78 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 30c | 324.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.19 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 69c | 309.52$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.57 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 6c | 274$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 29c | 267.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.46 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 70c | 260$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 74c | 209.29$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.32 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked Yes | 14c | 193$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 71c | 191$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.06 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 69c | 180.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Yes | 12c | 170.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed Yes | 63c | 169.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 12c | 160.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 52c | 154.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 74c | 148.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 37c | 132.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed No | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 30c | 121.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 78c | 116.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 22c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Yes | 75c | 90.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 56c | 74.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 29c | 73.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Yes | 70c | 71.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 70c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 26c | 50.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…fc85backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 29c | 47.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed No | 27c | 40.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 28c | 40.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 48c | 38.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 42c | 35.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 73c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc809…5f4ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…ce9bbacked Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…025abacked Yes | 70c | 17.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 74c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Yes | 71c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Yes | 71c | 14.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 70c | 14.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lugano win on 2026-08-13?this page
- Will NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano end in a draw?Yes won
- Will NSÍ Runavík win on 2026-08-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.