Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42c85ff4c5327cdf09552d5f047f30c8dedb32ec5b865afb63a914d28030419d

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: OGof OG, Team Yandex
Resolved: Dec 5, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $66,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $75,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,094 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x29f9…e310backed Team Yandex	65c	11,818$7,678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,678.37	122	56.6%69 W · 53 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked OG	34c	5,889$2,017 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,872.56	174	44.8%78 W · 96 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Yandex	22c	5,790$1,283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,283.46	804	43.9%353 W · 451 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed OG	74c	2,983$2,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$779.35	180	75%135 W · 45 L	+18.8wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed OG	35c	2,914$1,019 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,895.37	628	41.1%258 W · 370 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Yandex	63c	2,594$1,635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,635	175	46.9%82 W · 93 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed Team Yandex	64c	2,489$1,604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,603.59	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	-4.0wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OG	46c	2,440$1,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,309.77	2,012	44.2%889 W · 1,123 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec61…4a2ebacked OG	31c	2,000$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,380	109	41.3%45 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked OG	48c	1,986$952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,034.07	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-4.8wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed Team Yandex	14c	1,696$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.13	86	27.9%24 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed OG	33c	1,642$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,092.31	364	42.3%154 W · 210 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked OG	35c	1,592$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,037.49	738	41.7%308 W · 430 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Team Yandex	75c	1,392$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,038.4	77	50.6%39 W · 38 L	-9.7wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG	28c	1,243$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$896.69	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Yandex	63c	999.96$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.97	536	52.6%282 W · 254 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked OG	32c	924.07$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$624.07	606	46.9%284 W · 322 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed OG	30c	920.93$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$644.65	220	33.6%74 W · 146 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Team Yandex	67c	878.68$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585.04	234	65%152 W · 82 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb3a…0338backed OG	36c	761.5$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488	69	63.8%44 W · 25 L	+7.4wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked OG	43c	726.22$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.49	380	49.2%187 W · 193 L	+13.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+168.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cff…6471backed OG	37c	696.5$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.79	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked OG	44c	595.57$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.57	103	38.8%40 W · 63 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Yandex	71c	572.72$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.62	186	61.8%115 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed OG	36c	555.53$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$355.54	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Team Yandex	67c	499.99$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.99	128	68%87 W · 41 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed OG	68c	491.86$334 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.24	64	60.9%39 W · 25 L	+5.8wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Team Yandex	9c	475.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.83	103	40.8%42 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…a48cbacked Team Yandex	65c	446.47$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked OG	36c	436.42$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.79	218	47.2%103 W · 115 L	+16.5wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa55e…c136backed OG	62c	425$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.5	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+4.0wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Yandex	64c	406.98$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.47	315	45.4%143 W · 172 L	-19.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1891…fd78backed OG	56c	294.18$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.17	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked OG	71c	283.05$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.05	353	70%247 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	69cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed OG	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	641	49.9%320 W · 321 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26be…d699backed OG	36c	213.1$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.6	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Team Yandex	63c	212.06$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.12	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Team Yandex	43c	200$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…e109backed OG	53c	175.97$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.23	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fd…104ebacked OG	53c	175.96$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.22	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed Team Yandex	66c	159.17$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.05	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Team Yandex	64c	155.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.63	269	57.6%155 W · 114 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Team Yandex	66c	151.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed OG	37c	135.14$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.14	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf2…29d6backed Team Yandex	38c	131.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.15	52	36.5%19 W · 33 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Team Yandex	21c	126.58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	160	50.6%81 W · 79 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked OG	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	235	46.8%110 W · 125 L	+10.7wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	0%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf051…a54cbacked OG	38c	122.82$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.62	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	+6.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36a9…c1d3backed Team Yandex	70c	116.58$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.73	32	65.6%21 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	68cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Team Yandex	68c	100$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	149	48.3%72 W · 77 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x871c…7f0abacked OG	39c	100$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61	60	68.3%41 W · 19 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3703…2795backed OG	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	153	41.2%63 W · 90 L	-7.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed OG	35c	91.99$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.37	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b2…bbdbbacked OG	42c	90.02$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.56	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-37%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe706…6921backed OG	33c	80.76$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.12	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked OG	41c	77.1$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.58	869	49%426 W · 443 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed OG	50c	74.65$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.65	199	49.2%98 W · 101 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd8…c4abbacked Team Yandex	71c	70.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.17	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Team Yandex	40c	68.28$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.31	179	46.9%84 W · 95 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e13…a547backed OG	37c	63.38$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.12	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.31per pick	36cpaid	+53.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed Team Yandex	65c	63.35$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.17	121	47.9%58 W · 63 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c13…c543backed OG	76c	58.45$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	72cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b0…b21dbacked OG	37c	54.05$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.05	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Yandex	35c	53.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.76	203	61.6%125 W · 78 L	+22.0wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+12%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x680b…276abacked Team Yandex	63c	47.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.68	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Yandex	63c	46.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	340	63.2%215 W · 125 L	+38.9wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+13%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x62b7…f260backed OG	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8deb…d8e2backed OG	31c	42.04$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.95	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked OG	36c	41.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.67	236	40.7%96 W · 140 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x850a…9724backed OG	58c	40.51$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+74.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Yandex	64c	39.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	236	50.4%119 W · 117 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x143f…8b42backed OG	65c	38.86$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a30…6ad8backed Team Yandex	62c	38.6$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb382…c498backed OG	40c	33.25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.04	71	59.2%42 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae2…356bbacked Team Yandex	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c3…ba20backed Team Yandex	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	37cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Team Yandex	57c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	507	57.4%291 W · 216 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Team Yandex	38c	29.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	80	66.3%53 W · 27 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9428…63d5backed OG	59c	24.76$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.24	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Team Yandex	66c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	737	43.6%321 W · 416 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd375…6637backed Team Yandex	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd71f…6af6backed Team Yandex	64c	17.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Yandex	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	468	72.2%338 W · 130 L	+36.5wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO3)Team Yandex won
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event