TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BetBoom Teamof BetBoom Team, Rune Eaters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$272,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,404 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ae…9a4abacked Rune Eaters28c37,158$10,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,579.1823435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Rune Eaters20c19,063$3,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,878.971143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked BetBoom Team77c18,229$13,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,243.728159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked BetBoom Team79c9,514$7,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.3580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed BetBoom Team67c8,958$6,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,956.148250%41 W · 41 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Rune Eaters20c7,730$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.9526540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Rune Eaters25c6,019$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.091,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Rune Eaters28c5,005$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.1389741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Rune Eaters21c4,688$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Rune Eaters5c4,513$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.4933867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked BetBoom Team72c4,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12032549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Rune Eaters20c3,578$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.851,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team66c3,434$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.541,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Rune Eaters20c3,000$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.7681029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed BetBoom Team79c2,500$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed Rune Eaters18c2,376$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.625438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Rune Eaters1c2,366$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.126132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Rune Eaters18c2,250$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed BetBoom Team79c2,121$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.4111654.3%63 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked BetBoom Team77c2,029$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.3912253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Rune Eaters1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked BetBoom Team73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked BetBoom Team63c1,980$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.2850850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Rune Eaters23c1,941$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.382,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Rune Eaters29c1,885$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.061,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Rune Eaters22c1,868$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.8831248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked BetBoom Team67c1,819$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.291,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Rune Eaters20c1,810$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.082931%9 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-40.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed BetBoom Team67c1,513$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.951,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed BetBoom Team72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.8915739.5%62 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked BetBoom Team76c1,361$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team77c1,307$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.621,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Rune Eaters18c1,274$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed Rune Eaters26c1,266$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.285244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Rune Eaters23c1,221$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.8341056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked BetBoom Team74c1,200$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.7632756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Rune Eaters26c1,149$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7002…395cbacked Rune Eaters35c1,143$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.483063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Rune Eaters35c1,096$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1834442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed BetBoom Team76c1,059$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.4311551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Rune Eaters12c1,039$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2370236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa194…d4bebacked Rune Eaters23c1,028$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.081631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed BetBoom Team77c1,000$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.953764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked BetBoom Team78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22027060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed BetBoom Team75c1,000$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25151364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Rune Eaters18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18031547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked BetBoom Team73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27059254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked BetBoom Team67c999.99$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Rune Eaters27c999.54$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Rune Eaters24c974.16$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.651,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Rune Eaters25c961.87$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3422031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed BetBoom Team71c949.99$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27918143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c13…71a1backed Rune Eaters34c882.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004540%18 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked BetBoom Team67c821.32$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.041,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked BetBoom Team74c800$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21249644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked BetBoom Team80c793.05$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6185851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed BetBoom Team79c787.7$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.625359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed Rune Eaters24c783.75$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18816058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked BetBoom Team75c720.26$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.569042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Rune Eaters21c703.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9250053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed BetBoom Team72c700$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1937263.9%46 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Rune Eaters2c616.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0635850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked BetBoom Team74c600$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15620859.6%124 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Rune Eaters30c594.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1747548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BetBoom Team77c562.84$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.161,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed BetBoom Team80c562.5$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.517757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Rune Eaters18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004332.6%14 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c82…5a52backed BetBoom Team78c534.31$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5523459%138 W · 96 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed BetBoom Team72c530.39$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5945750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed BetBoom Team78c528.67$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6716256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed Rune Eaters22c522.85$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.24025%10 W · 30 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed BetBoom Team79c512.4$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.489350.5%47 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2776…4ecbbacked Rune Eaters9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.877262.5%45 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked BetBoom Team74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13099844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed BetBoom Team79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10535737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed BetBoom Team67c446.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8541455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed BetBoom Team79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8467555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a0…eabbbacked Rune Eaters33c400$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1327728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed BetBoom Team77c384.78$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7847660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5940…94c8backed Rune Eaters20c377.33$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.354835.4%17 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked BetBoom Team77c363.31$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6943049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed BetBoom Team75c350$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.553758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8627…cb74backed Rune Eaters20c342.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703868.4%26 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Rune Eaters38c327.32$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.241,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed BetBoom Team78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6634860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed BetBoom Team79c292.92$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5155561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Rune Eaters22c282$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.043141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21cc…54bcbacked Rune Eaters18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508442.9%36 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed BetBoom Team80c251.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.519156%51 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Rune Eaters22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5566848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Rune Eaters27c249.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.529550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Rune Eaters27c249.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.543738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa618…20bbbacked Rune Eaters20c241.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc03b…21e2backed Rune Eaters22c221.61$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.752733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2fe…695dbacked Rune Eaters23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017349.1%85 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed BetBoom Team70c205.71$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7122868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked BetBoom Team74c202.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.719849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked BetBoom Team73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5454659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked BetBoom Team67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6611733.3%39 W · 78 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Rune Eaters26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5263032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.