Movies · resolved market
Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4405d65a806eba0e9fe2fcdcc1c9557cff53d658f1e8dfc0ce7cbf5260b10c8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 19c | 6,146$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.97 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 70c | 2,420$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.15 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed Yes | 79c | 1,764$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.08 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…5e90backed Yes | 79c | 1,669$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 1,609$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.3 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes | 79c | 1,604$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 1,319$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 20c | 828.36$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.04 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 799.72$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.94 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 32c | 727$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.34 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 715.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 32c | 712.94$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.55 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 21c | 653.08$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 649.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.25 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 78c | 638.05$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.05 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 585.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 15c | 556.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 18c | 536.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 14c | 512.2$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 17c | 490.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 489$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 18c | 433.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 15c | 406$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 399.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 372.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 16c | 346.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 17c | 340.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 24c | 288.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 22c | 273.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 71c | 239.82$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 20c | 210.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 21c | 199$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 26c | 177.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 76c | 128.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 127$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 117.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 19c | 113.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 72c | 80.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 70.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…5127backed Yes | 75c | 69.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 66.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…5df8backed Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 62.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 21c | 62.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 32c | 54.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 41c | 48.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 71c | 39.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 37c | 38.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 40c | 37.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 69c | 25.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.