Movies · resolved market
Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5aeb701357d2ca55558663f5ba1ef0872b7cc2dfa0a5b3292ba396e349e4f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 24c | 24,962$6,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,051.04 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 63c | 13,357$8,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,920.71 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 19c | 5,967$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.26 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,672$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.58 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 80c | 3,559$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.54 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 6c | 3,047$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.89 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 7c | 2,995$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 12c | 2,769$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.51 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…5e90backed No | 79c | 1,876$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 37c | 1,579$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.35 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 8c | 1,397$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 44c | 1,192$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.64 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 1,157$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.68 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 1,066$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 829.73$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.79 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 784.57$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.72 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 688.53$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.53 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 68c | 623.02$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.87 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 585.19$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 585.02$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 581.64$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 42c | 517$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 497.75$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 461.89$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 17c | 445.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No | 22c | 440$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 398.63$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 15c | 398.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 20c | 387.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 353.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 31c | 310.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.83 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 57c | 260.69$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed No | 79c | 254.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 6c | 240$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 78c | 221.64$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 215$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.11 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 48c | 205.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 199$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 9c | 183$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 177.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 14c | 171$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.72 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 165$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 51c | 153.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 125.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 123.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 69c | 102.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…ce4fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 34c | 98.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ad…6a6bbacked No | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 20c | 74.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 75c | 69.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 76c | 64.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 62.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…87c0backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 47.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 46.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 45.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…f180backed Yes | 66c | 42.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 40.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 37.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 77c | 37.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed No | 80c | 37.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…07aebacked No | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 24.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedf…fce8backed No | 80c | 23.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc1…a179backed No | 77c | 22.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?Yes won
- Will "Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.