Fifa International · resolved market
Lionel Messi: 2+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44572de077fd11b39184826ae9d52768ef59a729be68770893a9b67d4198317f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 19c | 3,668$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.06 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 21c | 1,599$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.47 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…042abacked Yes | 75c | 1,390$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked Yes | 79c | 1,278$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.54 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 1,179$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.02 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 23c | 1,043$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.06 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 22c | 814.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.49 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 22c | 740$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.7 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked Yes | 79c | 503.78$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 211 | 33.2%70 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…e395backed Yes | 76c | 457.31$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.83 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 22c | 350.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.07 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Yes | 70c | 293.77$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed No | 26c | 291.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.25 | 791 | 49.2%389 W · 402 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4793…a932backed Yes | 77c | 271.79$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 257.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.57 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…093dbacked Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 14c | 243.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.58 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x512b…a14ebacked Yes | 77c | 238.96$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…5e6bbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 21c | 176.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed No | 16c | 174.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.91 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed No | 8c | 152.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.14 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9899…5d02backed Yes | 71c | 148.22$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.38 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…98babacked Yes | 77c | 140.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ec…1a4bbacked No | 22c | 106.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +12.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…0c6fbacked No | 27c | 104.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 71 | 8.5%6 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…d7c4backed No | 22c | 88.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…a003backed Yes | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Yes | 78c | 82.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes | 77c | 71.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…3769backed Yes | 78c | 63.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 25c | 45.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 281 | 48.4%136 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760d…0786backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…c6e4backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 78c | 36.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 63c | 34.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…928fbacked Yes | 78c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b24…de87backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a4…c881backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…be18backed Yes | 78c | 17.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 71c | 17.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 215 | 65.1%140 W · 75 L | +16.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 72c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 93. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lionel Messi: 2+ shotsthis page
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shotsYes won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on targetNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ assistsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ goalsYes won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ shotsYes won
- Anthony Gordon: 2+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 2+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 3+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on targetNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 4+ shotsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ assistsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ shotsYes won
- Declan Rice: 2+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 2+ shotsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 1+ goalsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 2+ goalsNo won
- Elliot Anderson: 2+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ assistsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ shotsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 2+ shotsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 3+ shotsYes won
- Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ shotsYes won
- Harry Kane: 2+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 4+ shotsNo won
- Jordan Pickford: 4+ savesNo won
- Jordan Pickford: 5+ savesNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 4+ shotsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ shotsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.