TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,025 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Yes71c2,399$1,699 inLost-$1,698.9139265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No45c1,513$683 inWon+$829.9979650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked No7c500$33 inWon+$46730224.8%75 W · 227 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d94…593ebacked No7c499.99$36 inWon+$463.992850%14 W · 14 L+9.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+291%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Yes53c408.68$218 inLost-$2185639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No45c407.99$184 inWon+$224.264,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed Yes55c270.82$148 inLost-$148.2715362.1%95 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked No57c175.44$100 inWon+$75.443464.7%22 W · 12 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+38.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4248…d43fbacked No49c137.25$67 inWon+$702937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed No48c100$48 inWon+$5240053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes52c75$39 inLost-$397153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32c…ff08backed Yes51c68.63$35 inLost-$352835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No49c66.48$33 inWon+$33.845,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6b…902bbacked Yes51c49.02$25 inLost-$251631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No46c47$22 inWon+$25.381,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb92…b02dbacked Yes52c40.38$21 inLost-$212040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes43c30$13 inLost-$12.990357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No47c25$12 inWon+$13.252,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.