Fifa International · resolved market
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4da254deafaa10035cb6f105a5a6b19d8ec10d767f0c963a32f7be3e61a7b22c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 44c | 779.17$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.07 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked No | 43c | 631.58$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.58 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…753abacked Yes | 36c | 323.05$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 62c | 283.95$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 67c | 217.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.22 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…18b1backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 17c | 138.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 131.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…0613backed No | 74c | 126.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 39c | 105.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Yes | 62c | 98.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 56c | 88.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 62c | 75.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…9a2cbacked Yes | 15c | 65.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed No | 66c | 65.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked No | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51c…5131backed Yes | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed No | 37c | 52.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed No | 76c | 50.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…55d6backed Yes | 62c | 50.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…793cbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 62c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed Yes | 50c | 48.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0968…0165backed Yes | 61c | 48.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…49d7backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…38a6backed Yes | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 36c | 30.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…7761backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…cdd1backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…5bdfbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad5…d1f7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 74c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11?this page
- Will Bernardo Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Diogo Dalot be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Francisco Trincão be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Gonçalo Ramos be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Pedro Neto be in Portugal's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11?Yes won
- Will Rui Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11?No won
- Will Tomás Araújo be in Portugal's Starting 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.