AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51658ee09600176de345d3a085ebc54b5ae62d59a53248de5ba3038b541970b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,021 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x733b…9844backed Yes | 79c | 4,682$3,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,214$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…c406backed No | 7c | 1,950$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 21c | 1,266$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.63 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 1,222$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 16c | 650$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 59c | 609$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…4421backed No | 48c | 415.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…7af0backed No | 61c | 330.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 53c | 294.01$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x043c…3cf8backed No | 44c | 285.17$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 282$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 48c | 269.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 14c | 248.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 41c | 213$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…ab54backed Yes | 71c | 211.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 41c | 206$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 66c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 41c | 190$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 62c | 177.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 152.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 147.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 39c | 141.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…b768backed No | 36c | 137.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 42c | 131.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 61c | 108.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 45c | 102.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 51c | 89.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 83.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…9d34backed No | 48c | 78.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…f447backed No | 53c | 77.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…5538backed No | 64c | 76.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 45c | 62.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 40c | 61.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…41bdbacked No | 55c | 54.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe990…bc9bbacked No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…bd0bbacked No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7d87backed No | 58c | 46.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 41c | 43.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb95c…7eabbacked No | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 36c | 33.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…ca6cbacked No | 34c | 32.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…ccd9backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 28.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 55c | 22.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 71c | 21.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 21.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9cbdbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…84a0backed No | 53c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?this page
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 11?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 2?No won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 3?No won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 5?No won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 7?No won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.