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WNBA · resolved market

Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden State Valkyriesof Golden State Valkyries, New York Liberty
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$348,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$394,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked New York Liberty59c42,098$25,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,021.6110737.4%40 W · 67 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab1…1975backed New York Liberty58c26,337$15,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,275.391833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Golden State Valkyries43c20,164$8,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,588.1167951.1%347 W · 332 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed New York Liberty10c17,455$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.431040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Liberty37c16,336$6,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,121.641,04047.7%496 W · 544 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Golden State Valkyries54c12,353$6,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,665.713040%12 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Golden State Valkyries41c12,079$4,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,126.5742051.2%215 W · 205 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Golden State Valkyries61c6,222$3,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.2737251.1%190 W · 182 L+16.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Golden State Valkyries41c5,151$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,039.2122047.7%105 W · 115 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Golden State Valkyries61c5,105$3,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,988.61163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed New York Liberty59c5,089$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0014158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Golden State Valkyries76c4,336$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.6352247.5%248 W · 274 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Golden State Valkyries52c4,313$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.011,82051.7%941 W · 879 L+54.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Golden State Valkyries41c4,249$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.4443546.7%203 W · 232 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden State Valkyries41c3,782$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.5788548.2%427 W · 458 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Golden State Valkyries42c3,644$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.7392349.2%454 W · 469 L+3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Golden State Valkyries40c3,521$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.6148646.9%228 W · 258 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc50…f8debacked Golden State Valkyries42c3,440$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.093046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Liberty59c3,077$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.817347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed New York Liberty34c3,012$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.723754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Golden State Valkyries80c2,602$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.653268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Golden State Valkyries42c2,500$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.131855.7%177 W · 141 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0972…f1c4backed New York Liberty53c2,467$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Golden State Valkyries42c2,315$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.763850%19 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed Golden State Valkyries40c2,300$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Golden State Valkyries42c2,143$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.867057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1ed…25bebacked New York Liberty47c2,100$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9872240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b46…e199backed Golden State Valkyries77c1,965$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-56.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb63…b3debacked New York Liberty21c1,916$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.45137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-80.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed New York Liberty56c1,852$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.91866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02c5…c13abacked Golden State Valkyries44c1,800$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Golden State Valkyries77c1,756$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.858850%44 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries41c1,624$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.3980948.6%393 W · 416 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Liberty24c1,533$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.44450%22 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc306…accdbacked New York Liberty56c1,493$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.544555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Golden State Valkyries76c1,443$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.3541841.1%172 W · 246 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Golden State Valkyries42c1,429$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.5711152.3%58 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked New York Liberty58c1,355$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.6716248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Golden State Valkyries42c1,332$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.226956.5%39 W · 30 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Golden State Valkyries40c1,267$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.6495448.1%459 W · 495 L+4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Golden State Valkyries42c1,263$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Liberty58c1,092$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.015058%29 W · 21 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked New York Liberty48c1,078$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.9485858.3%500 W · 358 L+69.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Golden State Valkyries55c1,076$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.542147%198 W · 223 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed New York Liberty11c1,052$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.687338.4%28 W · 45 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Golden State Valkyries42c1,050$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.989838.8%38 W · 60 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe538…c28bbacked Golden State Valkyries44c1,026$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.131040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked New York Liberty59c1,004$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.458459.5%50 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Liberty9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9052652.7%277 W · 249 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Golden State Valkyries41c1,000$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59510052%52 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed New York Liberty53c996$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.518957.7%109 W · 80 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Golden State Valkyries41c991.33$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.818846.8%88 W · 100 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed New York Liberty57c927.91$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.911656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked New York Liberty59c816.89$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.93450%17 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d8…f8fabacked Golden State Valkyries46c804.62$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Golden State Valkyries41c787.8$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.5610442.3%44 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed New York Liberty50c777$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.515642.3%66 W · 90 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe955…2114backed Golden State Valkyries80c763.18$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Golden State Valkyries45c718.8$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.84139%16 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Golden State Valkyries43c700$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3991838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ce0…97afbacked New York Liberty59c677.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf809…b391backed New York Liberty58c660$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.82236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe692…13a8backed Golden State Valkyries41c599.92$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.954450%22 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Liberty17c599.35$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8540750.1%204 W · 203 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeca…8c27backed New York Liberty60c565.82$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Golden State Valkyries40c557.5$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.578342.3%331 W · 452 L-23.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Golden State Valkyries41c550.47$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.787047.1%33 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Golden State Valkyries71c533.28$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.334249.7%170 W · 172 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6ebacked New York Liberty22c530$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1157448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Golden State Valkyries60c511.24$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.552277.3%17 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed New York Liberty51c500.02$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5236440.4%147 W · 217 L-20.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Golden State Valkyries42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2909157.1%52 W · 39 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Golden State Valkyries53c500$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.615551.6%80 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Golden State Valkyries40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3009045.6%41 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Golden State Valkyries42c480.63$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.126841.2%28 W · 40 L-8.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Golden State Valkyries43c470$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.92035%7 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e49…421ebacked Golden State Valkyries47c462.61$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.112568%17 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed New York Liberty9c429.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6212734.6%44 W · 83 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x03f0…3b57backed New York Liberty59c412.85$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc2…8b9bbacked New York Liberty52c400$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2079656.3%54 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96e…bb89backed Golden State Valkyries41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid-20.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Golden State Valkyries70c382.88$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.084065%26 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0c…4715backed Golden State Valkyries69c368.39$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.051283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x425d…86e1backed New York Liberty11c363.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Golden State Valkyries78c356.99$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5612142.1%51 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed New York Liberty58c343.1$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1998544.7%38 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed New York Liberty58c341.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002638.5%10 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-35.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0fca…3487backed Golden State Valkyries42c329.17$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.921741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed New York Liberty13c327$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5122047.3%104 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed New York Liberty15c298.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.649913.1%13 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a8c…3972backed New York Liberty52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20c…5031backed Golden State Valkyries41c286.55$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.094654.3%25 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdefb…5b50backed Golden State Valkyries43c273.8$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.324327.9%12 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed New York Liberty36c273.45$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4931747.3%150 W · 167 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed New York Liberty29c262.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.048263.4%52 W · 30 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed Golden State Valkyries43c261.63$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.134238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked New York Liberty44c259.15$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3940045.5%182 W · 218 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed New York Liberty9c253.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7962242%261 W · 361 L-33.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Golden State Valkyries42c251.43$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.832334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb5a…8008backed Golden State Valkyries42c250$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1452100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+85.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.