NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 229.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54a15721d163c6cac2579135b8956a155b8149c9bf4af39c1e10890d0c5936a2

Rebuilt 11 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,926 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Under	55c	25,522$14,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,521.89	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	46c	20,030$9,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,130.11	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	46c	6,773$3,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,636.42	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Over	47c	3,607$1,695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,695.37	416	49.8%207 W · 209 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	54c	3,522$1,911 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,910.54	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	46c	2,103$970 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$969.5	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	51c	2,063$1,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,003.07	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Under	51c	1,735$885 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$849.91	232	50.4%117 W · 115 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Over	53c	1,400$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746	187	43.3%81 W · 106 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	53c	1,238$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.18	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over	46c	991.79$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.19	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	47c	905.16$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.41	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over	48c	799.99$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384	843	42.9%362 W · 481 L	-39.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	45c	635.45$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.95	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under	52c	632.12$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.42	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under	52c	600$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288	617	40.7%251 W · 366 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…a405backed Under	54c	541.58$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Over	46c	469.57$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	290	37.9%110 W · 180 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under	55c	456.66$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.66	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	47c	400.23$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.43	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ae…bf54backed Over	49c	400$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	160	53.1%85 W · 75 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6d…492bbacked Over	45c	400$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed Under	54c	400$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+7.2wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b87…d438backed Under	51c	392.02$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.02	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	53c	377.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,758	48.7%856 W · 902 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Over	46c	341.99$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.32	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-20.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under	54c	277.67$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.73	473	49%232 W · 241 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e4d…4c9dbacked Under	55c	272.73$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.73	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Under	52c	259.62$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.62	229	53.7%123 W · 106 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd13c…6170backed Over	47c	253.32$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.51	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Over	43c	246.34$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.01	191	35.6%68 W · 123 L	-9.3wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	53c	231.6$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.45	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Over	46c	216.9$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x447f…d110backed Over	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	+8.6wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+25%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Over	46c	200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	183	43.7%80 W · 103 L	-11.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	135	43.7%59 W · 76 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under	54c	199.99$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4d…a31ebacked Under	54c	185.18$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.18	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9935…8fb9backed Under	52c	181$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.88	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…7b09backed Over	49c	181$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.69	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	45c	149.15$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.29	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	47c	126.2$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.68	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under	55c	123.64$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.64	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x348f…a206backed Over	49c	113.67$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.7	58	48.3%28 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Under	54c	110$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.6	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	46c	109$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.14	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	44c	94.69$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.03	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f4…83a0backed Over	49c	88.33$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.47	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	53c	83.15$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.08	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Over	63c	78.32$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.34	33	69.7%23 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9e2…3000backed Over	56c	71.54$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6460…84efbacked Over	49c	67.8$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.1	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-6.4wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Over	46c	65.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	555	33.5%186 W · 369 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Over	47c	65$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.55	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-15.0wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	49c	62.8$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.77	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe833…1723backed Over	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under	47c	50.3$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.76	238	45.4%108 W · 130 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	45c	49.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Under	51c	45$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.05	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Over	54c	42.59$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	317	48.9%155 W · 162 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61b…1872backed Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-3.4wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Over	46c	41.3$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	317	45.4%144 W · 173 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7081…2d9cbacked Over	56c	37.15$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6630…703cbacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	112	58.9%66 W · 46 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	42c	36.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.16	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f3…f487backed Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85f1…2388backed Over	46c	35$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc035…5414backed Under	56c	30.36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.36	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Over	51c	30.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.43	222	47.3%105 W · 117 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	54c	28.06$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.91	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over	46c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+26%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec5b…9936backed Under	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd902…d076backed Over	50c	26.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	56	50%28 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x47ba…a503backed Over	45c	24.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	169	42.6%72 W · 97 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae69…0c24backed Over	46c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	40	60%24 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca65…6746backed Over	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89a4…5f78backed Under	52c	20.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	100	53%53 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 229.5this page
1H Spread: Magic (-2.5)Grizzlies won
Grizzlies vs. MagicMagic won
Grizzlies vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
Grizzlies vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 231.5Under won
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Magic won
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Magic won
Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-7.5)Grizzlies won
Spread: Magic (-8.5)Grizzlies won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Grizzlies vs. Magic: O/U 229.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event