UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Pericic vs. Ellison
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dc3c0ad626184e32d6004463674196180f5bbfabe73dab6e8911e59316389d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pericicof Pericic, Ellison
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $462,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $607,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $462,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Ellison | 35c | 286,595$99,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,884.12 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Pericic | 65c | 119,689$78,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,587.99 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Pericic | 65c | 99,690$65,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,686.04 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pericic | 65c | 24,000$15,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,502 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Ellison | 35c | 15,000$5,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,245.08 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Pericic | 65c | 12,016$7,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,205.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pericic | 65c | 6,639$4,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.15 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Pericic | 65c | 5,940$3,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Pericic | 64c | 5,913$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128.65 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Pericic | 66c | 4,381$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.2 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Pericic | 66c | 4,059$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.06 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Pericic | 65c | 3,187$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.06 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Pericic | 65c | 2,500$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…10b0backed Pericic | 66c | 2,245$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Pericic | 66c | 2,163$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Ellison | 35c | 2,050$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Pericic | 66c | 2,002$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.72 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pericic | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Ellison | 32c | 1,802$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.21 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Ellison | 34c | 1,728$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.2 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pericic | 65c | 1,701$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.26 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Pericic | 62c | 1,607$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.1 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Pericic | 66c | 1,422$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pericic | 64c | 1,364$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.42 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Ellison | 38c | 1,350$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Pericic | 65c | 1,126$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.22 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pericic | 65c | 1,024$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.23 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Pericic | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.14 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pericic | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Ellison | 37c | 999.98$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Pericic | 68c | 996.62$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…8185backed Ellison | 36c | 927.78$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Ellison | 34c | 916.87$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.39 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Pericic | 65c | 828.85$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.1 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Pericic | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Pericic | 65c | 767.06$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Pericic | 64c | 715.62$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.67 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Pericic | 68c | 658.39$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.68 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Ellison | 32c | 610.65$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Pericic | 66c | 599.99$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Pericic | 64c | 479.54$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Pericic | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Pericic | 66c | 405.71$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Pericic | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ellison | 32c | 376.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Pericic | 59c | 353.85$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.85 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Ellison | 48c | 333.7$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Pericic | 63c | 317.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Ellison | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc607…7958backed Pericic | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ellison | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Pericic | 63c | 237.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Pericic | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Pericic | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b5…e04fbacked Ellison | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Pericic | 66c | 187.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Pericic | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Ellison | 36c | 136.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Ellison | 36c | 125.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…bc18backed Pericic | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…68febacked Pericic | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Pericic | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Pericic | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Pericic | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Ellison | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Pericic | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Pericic | 68c | 35.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Pericic | 64c | 26.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Pericic | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Pericic vs. Ellisonthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Carolina vs. MontagueMontague won
- UFC Fight Night: Crute vs. ErslanCrute won
- UFC Fight Night: Jenkins vs. TaverasJenkins won
- UFC Fight Night: Lookboonmee vs. ThainaraThainara won
- UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. MagnyMagny won
- UFC Fight Night: Mullarkey vs. BedoyaMullarkey won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowston vs. PetroskiRowston won
- UFC Fight Night: Stirling vs. BellatoStirling won
- UFC Fight Night: Thicknesse vs. MusasaThicknesse won
- UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesUlberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.