UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Carolina vs. Montague
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6421f561a6f3569d31f57b8b032cabfaf429aef820ccc45550954ba12de3dba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montagueof Carolina, Montague
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $476,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $479,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $476,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Montague | 67c | 435,238$291,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143,946.75 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Carolina | 33c | 320,074$105,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105,623.53 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Carolina | 33c | 100,000$33,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,300 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Carolina | 34c | 10,096$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,432.63 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Montague | 66c | 8,699$5,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,959.62 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Carolina | 33c | 7,647$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522.06 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Carolina | 33c | 7,444$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…724fbacked Montague | 67c | 3,709$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.16 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Carolina | 33c | 3,496$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.79 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Carolina | 33c | 2,881$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.23 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Montague | 67c | 2,300$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Carolina | 34c | 1,610$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.29 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Montague | 76c | 1,219$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.1 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Carolina | 37c | 1,026$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.91 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Carolina | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Carolina | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Carolina | 33c | 972.73$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.49 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Carolina | 32c | 918.16$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.63 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Carolina | 2c | 882.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Montague | 66c | 836.36$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.36 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Carolina | 19c | 810.11$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Montague | 65c | 799.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Carolina | 34c | 709$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.18 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Carolina | 35c | 627$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.45 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Carolina | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Carolina | 33c | 500.29$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.82 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Carolina | 32c | 499.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Montague | 66c | 492.42$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Montague | 66c | 486.94$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.56 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Montague | 63c | 468.2$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Montague | 68c | 447$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Montague | 66c | 431.82$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Carolina | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Montague | 66c | 352.27$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Montague | 67c | 346.45$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Carolina | 33c | 343.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Carolina | 15c | 315.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Carolina | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Carolina | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…bc18backed Montague | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Carolina | 35c | 285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Carolina | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…e3c0backed Montague | 63c | 275$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…1bafbacked Carolina | 37c | 272.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Montague | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Montague | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b5…e04fbacked Carolina | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Carolina | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Montague | 64c | 170.02$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Carolina | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Montague | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Montague | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…e6debacked Carolina | 33c | 116.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Carolina | 33c | 104.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Carolina | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Carolina | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Montague | 69c | 96.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Montague | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Carolina | 26c | 73.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Montague | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Carolina | 32c | 71.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Montague | 68c | 71.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Montague | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Carolina | 16c | 66.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…68febacked Montague | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Montague | 67c | 52.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Carolina | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Carolina | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Carolina | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Carolina | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Montague | 79c | 46.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Montague | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…09f2backed Carolina | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Montague | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Montague | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Montague | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Montague | 75c | 21.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Montague | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Montague | 66c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…c63cbacked Montague | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Carolina vs. Montaguethis page
- UFC Fight Night: Crute vs. ErslanCrute won
- UFC Fight Night: Jenkins vs. TaverasJenkins won
- UFC Fight Night: Lookboonmee vs. ThainaraThainara won
- UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. MagnyMagny won
- UFC Fight Night: Mullarkey vs. BedoyaMullarkey won
- UFC Fight Night: Pericic vs. EllisonPericic won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowston vs. PetroskiRowston won
- UFC Fight Night: Stirling vs. BellatoStirling won
- UFC Fight Night: Thicknesse vs. MusasaThicknesse won
- UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesUlberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.