UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Thicknesse vs. Musasa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce3643d2c90a31a5e48a024d2793cfd7db776e3b49b910c4eea875d6acde15c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thicknesseof Thicknesse, Musasa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,188,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,192,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,188,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Musasa | 64c | 963,255$620,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620,957.77 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Thicknesse | 35c | 242,481$85,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157,187.83 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Thicknesse | 35c | 135,121$47,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,407.93 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Thicknesse | 35c | 130,226$45,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,446.78 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Thicknesse | 36c | 114,580$41,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,331.12 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Thicknesse | 36c | 57,776$20,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,265.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Thicknesse | 36c | 41,900$15,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,816 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Thicknesse | 36c | 38,244$13,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,506 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Thicknesse | 34c | 35,577$12,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,469.81 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Thicknesse | 44c | 30,000$13,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,799.99 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thicknesse | 35c | 29,987$10,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,491.55 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Thicknesse | 38c | 29,736$11,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,521 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Thicknesse | 36c | 28,435$10,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,079.04 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Thicknesse | 36c | 25,000$8,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,050 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Thicknesse | 36c | 20,425$7,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,136.39 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Thicknesse | 44c | 16,262$7,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,052.85 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thicknesse | 38c | 11,052$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,852.24 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Musasa | 57c | 10,501$6,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,003.11 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thicknesse | 36c | 10,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,400 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Thicknesse | 35c | 10,000$3,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,511 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Thicknesse | 36c | 8,000$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,102.22 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Thicknesse | 39c | 8,000$3,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,869.99 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Thicknesse | 19c | 7,906$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,403.79 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Musasa | 68c | 6,501$4,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,446.91 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Thicknesse | 37c | 6,432$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,064.31 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Musasa | 56c | 5,949$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.57 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Musasa | 56c | 5,714$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Thicknesse | 34c | 5,510$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,617.2 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Musasa | 57c | 5,283$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,029.08 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thicknesse | 36c | 5,058$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.79 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Thicknesse | 38c | 4,589$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,856.05 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Thicknesse | 33c | 4,303$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.04 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Thicknesse | 22c | 4,005$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.83 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Musasa | 65c | 3,263$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.96 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Thicknesse | 39c | 3,160$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.04 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thicknesse | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Thicknesse | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Thicknesse | 44c | 2,942$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.31 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Thicknesse | 38c | 2,818$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.19 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Thicknesse | 36c | 2,652$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.52 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Thicknesse | 42c | 2,390$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.9 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Musasa | 56c | 2,121$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Musasa | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Thicknesse | 36c | 1,990$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Thicknesse | 43c | 1,900$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.5 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…10b0backed Musasa | 61c | 1,647$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Thicknesse | 35c | 1,600$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Thicknesse | 30c | 1,500$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musasa | 56c | 1,377$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.25 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Musasa | 57c | 1,160$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.2 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Thicknesse | 39c | 1,020$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Thicknesse | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Thicknesse | 32c | 938.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.37 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Musasa | 58c | 924.82$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Thicknesse | 35c | 914.55$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +1,291.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…fabbbacked Musasa | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Musasa | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Thicknesse | 29c | 884.89$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.96 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Thicknesse | 74c | 872.3$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.76 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Thicknesse | 39c | 836.95$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.7 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Thicknesse | 36c | 766.4$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.84 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Musasa | 64c | 753.22$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.06 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Thicknesse | 42c | 650$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Musasa | 57c | 610$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.7 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Thicknesse | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.56 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Thicknesse | 43c | 500$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Thicknesse | 33c | 470.11$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.38 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Thicknesse | 34c | 454.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.8 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Thicknesse | 39c | 454$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.94 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Thicknesse | 34c | 420.29$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.27 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Thicknesse | 32c | 403.04$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.09 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Thicknesse | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Thicknesse | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Thicknesse | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Thicknesse | 32c | 396.35$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.27 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Thicknesse | 38c | 380$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.6 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Musasa | 57c | 352.59$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Musasa | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Thicknesse | 38c | 350$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Thicknesse | 40c | 349.21$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.21 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Thicknesse | 44c | 320$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Musasa | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Thicknesse | 43c | 300$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Musasa | 56c | 269.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Thicknesse | 47c | 264.08$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.9 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Thicknesse | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Thicknesse | 31c | 225.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.86 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…462ebacked Thicknesse | 42c | 221.43$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Thicknesse | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Thicknesse | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Thicknesse | 43c | 196.36$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Musasa | 77c | 159.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…bc18backed Musasa | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Thicknesse | 34c | 133.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Thicknesse | 48c | 130.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Musasa | 57c | 121.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Thicknesse | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Thicknesse | 37c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Thicknesse | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Thicknesse | 41c | 103.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Thicknesse vs. Musasathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Carolina vs. MontagueMontague won
- UFC Fight Night: Crute vs. ErslanCrute won
- UFC Fight Night: Jenkins vs. TaverasJenkins won
- UFC Fight Night: Lookboonmee vs. ThainaraThainara won
- UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. MagnyMagny won
- UFC Fight Night: Mullarkey vs. BedoyaMullarkey won
- UFC Fight Night: Pericic vs. EllisonPericic won
- UFC Fight Night: Rowston vs. PetroskiRowston won
- UFC Fight Night: Stirling vs. BellatoStirling won
- UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesUlberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.