TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Thicknesse vs. Musasa

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thicknesseof Thicknesse, Musasa
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,188,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,192,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,188,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Musasa64c963,255$620,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620,957.773036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Thicknesse35c242,481$85,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157,187.8319154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Thicknesse35c135,121$47,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,407.931968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thicknesse35c130,226$45,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,446.7814857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thicknesse36c114,580$41,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,331.1219544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Thicknesse36c57,776$20,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,265.521250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Thicknesse36c41,900$15,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,8162958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Thicknesse36c38,244$13,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,5063831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Thicknesse34c35,577$12,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,469.813327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Thicknesse44c30,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,799.9916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thicknesse35c29,987$10,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,491.5537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Thicknesse38c29,736$11,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,5213525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Thicknesse36c28,435$10,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,079.048940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Thicknesse36c25,000$8,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,05020249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Thicknesse36c20,425$7,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,136.397545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Thicknesse44c16,262$7,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,052.8529151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thicknesse38c11,052$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,852.2433253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Musasa57c10,501$6,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,003.115955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Thicknesse36c10,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,40017055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Thicknesse35c10,000$3,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,51128043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Thicknesse36c8,000$2,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,102.2230964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Thicknesse39c8,000$3,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,869.9917752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Thicknesse19c7,906$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,403.7910522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Musasa68c6,501$4,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,446.9120954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Thicknesse37c6,432$2,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,064.314946.9%23 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Musasa56c5,949$3,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,331.575550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Musasa56c5,714$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.841070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Thicknesse34c5,510$1,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,617.216745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Musasa57c5,283$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,029.086841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thicknesse36c5,058$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,242.7913953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Thicknesse38c4,589$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.0512541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Thicknesse33c4,303$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.0421044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Thicknesse22c4,005$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,118.8318145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Musasa65c3,263$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.965356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Thicknesse39c3,160$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.0421247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Thicknesse38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86042042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Thicknesse80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60013650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465b…41c3backed Thicknesse44c2,942$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.316944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Thicknesse38c2,818$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.196533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Thicknesse36c2,652$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.526031.7%19 W · 41 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Thicknesse42c2,390$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.917850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Musasa56c2,121$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.011662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Musasa56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.9912052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked Thicknesse36c1,990$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.62236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Thicknesse43c1,900$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.511140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a95…10b0backed Musasa61c1,647$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Thicknesse35c1,600$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Thicknesse30c1,500$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musasa56c1,377$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.2518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x370f…c4e4backed Musasa57c1,160$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.23661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x285b…5231backed Thicknesse39c1,020$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.472259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Thicknesse69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31012055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Thicknesse32c938.37$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.3720233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Musasa58c924.82$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Thicknesse35c914.55$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+1,291.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd19e…fabbbacked Musasa57c900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5131662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Musasa56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006240.3%25 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Thicknesse29c884.89$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.9626743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Thicknesse74c872.3$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.7653956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Thicknesse39c836.95$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.79228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Thicknesse36c766.4$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.8411942.9%51 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Musasa64c753.22$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.066443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Thicknesse42c650$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37737754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Musasa57c610$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.718560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Thicknesse36c555.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.5635539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Thicknesse43c500$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28628743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Thicknesse33c470.11$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3810148.5%49 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Thicknesse34c454.47$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.88143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Thicknesse39c454$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.9418038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Thicknesse34c420.29$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.276354%34 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Thicknesse32c403.04$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.0922334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Thicknesse36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25632545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Thicknesse36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2567052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Thicknesse36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+74.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Thicknesse32c396.35$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.274946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Thicknesse38c380$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.68939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb790…8389backed Musasa57c352.59$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Musasa56c350$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19622342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3853…a3d3backed Thicknesse38c350$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Thicknesse40c349.21$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.2129848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Thicknesse44c320$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.413160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Musasa61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18313041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Thicknesse43c300$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Musasa56c269.98$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4956450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Thicknesse47c264.08$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.99744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Thicknesse36c250$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16036745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Thicknesse31c225.26$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8610045%45 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cf…462ebacked Thicknesse42c221.43$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.434542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Thicknesse71c220$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6511154.1%60 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Thicknesse44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11225251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Thicknesse43c196.36$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1616058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Musasa77c159.74$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Musasa64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Thicknesse34c133.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9115839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd263…54a7backed Thicknesse48c130.06$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.93946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Musasa57c121.05$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Thicknesse42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0510043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Thicknesse37c110$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.86741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Thicknesse40c110$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.716736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Thicknesse41c103.07$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2719152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.