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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. Magny

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magnyof Matthews, Magny
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$272,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$256,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Magny25c86,814$21,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,258.2535253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Matthews66c50,000$33,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,0001315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.5wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-79.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Matthews76c48,400$36,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,610.0914857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Magny15c28,123$4,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,039.510522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Matthews76c24,000$18,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,240560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magny24c19,095$4,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,511.9419544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Magny37c18,482$6,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,613.9429151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Magny34c12,000$4,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,922.320954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Magny25c10,885$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,129.6916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Matthews74c10,371$7,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,674.737853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Matthews76c10,000$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6006841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Magny24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6002948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Matthews77c8,842$6,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,81617158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Magny23c8,486$1,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,534.411877.8%14 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+70.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Matthews74c6,462$4,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,784.151662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Magny8c6,443$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,929.5120139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a95…10b0backed Matthews75c5,168$3,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.9977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Matthews75c5,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7501637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Magny25c3,683$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.2535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Matthews74c3,575$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.2533253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Matthews75c3,246$2,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,433.9218453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Magny27c2,943$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.1913039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Magny25c2,794$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,095.58940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Matthews75c2,693$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.4842042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Magny7c2,647$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.6218145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Matthews73c2,089$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.271250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Matthews75c2,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Magny25c1,600$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9926743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Matthews75c1,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.9930964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0ed…f1bdbacked Matthews76c1,434$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Matthews74c1,413$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.6314929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Magny25c1,192$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.32937.9%11 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Matthews75c1,050$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.53661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Magny19c1,035$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.1737854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Matthews75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb167…b2f9backed Magny24c1,000$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7602142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Matthews75c999.99$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.995550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Magny23c999.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.998655.8%48 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Magny27c925.93$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.935431.5%17 W · 37 L-5.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdbe…d11cbacked Magny25c870.64$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.583262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9de1…896abacked Matthews77c821.03$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.192166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Matthews74c775$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.58348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Magny33c668$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.495950.8%30 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Magny21c650$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.0732545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Magny25c600$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45010651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Matthews75c583.63$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.766756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2800…2081backed Matthews76c547.61$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.18650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Matthews77c519.48$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Magny4c476.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+1,291.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magny24c443$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.6813953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Magny21c440.32$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.238939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Matthews77c422.08$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32535764.7%231 W · 126 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked Magny24c411$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Matthews78c391.92$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.2213160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Magny26c380.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.8951533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Magny27c370.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3735539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Matthews76c359.99$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.597841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c96…f165backed Matthews75c280$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Matthews74c270$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.56657.6%38 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Matthews75c269$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.757052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Magny22c256.41$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20019154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Matthews78c256.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Matthews75c250$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1877147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Magny21c238.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.14856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Magny26c235.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.19875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+74.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Matthews76c219.87$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1429948.8%146 W · 153 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146a…36fabacked Magny26c216.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.497552%39 W · 36 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Magny24c215$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.410447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe40…2f99backed Magny24c210.54$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.015234.6%18 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Magny25c200.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.258036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Matthews69c181.39$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5421247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Magny21c178.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.378932.6%29 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Matthews78c177.9$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.765955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Magny27c172.18$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.389744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Magny7c163.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.0519152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf666…656cbacked Magny21c150$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+78.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Magny20c146.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0822334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Magny23c140.16$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.324649.6%122 W · 124 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Matthews75c133$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.753751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Magny15c131.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4332431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Magny22c128.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10012055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Magny34c120$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.27451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc35…d905backed Matthews78c115.53$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.112050%10 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c54…965ebacked Matthews76c105.79$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Magny21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7914827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Magny21c99.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9916736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a37…2c6dbacked Magny25c99.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eff…8490backed Magny23c86.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.123100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+141%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd700…7d04backed Magny24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Magny16c80$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.228333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Matthews70c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5631855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Matthews75c73.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Magny69c72.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.466354%34 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Matthews75c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.55455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8306…ecc9backed Matthews76c69.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.012356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Matthews76c69.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.916155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Magny24c67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.926036.7%22 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b26…9bc4backed Magny24c65.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9461…a76bbacked Matthews76c65.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501650%8 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31df…10cabacked Matthews76c65.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.