TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Mullarkey vs. Bedoya

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mullarkeyof Mullarkey, Bedoya
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$354,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$367,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Bedoya47c289,784$137,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137,451.953036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Mullarkey53c86,600$45,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,1321968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Mullarkey52c67,830$35,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,558.4814857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Mullarkey52c67,000$34,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,1607853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Mullarkey53c30,555$16,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,230.31250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Mullarkey55c19,626$10,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,831.651662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Mullarkey54c10,213$5,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,697.783327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mullarkey52c8,500$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,08037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Mullarkey53c7,500$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5006746.3%31 W · 36 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Bedoya46c7,000$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,219.9916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a95…10b0backed Mullarkey54c6,845$3,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,148.63977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Mullarkey53c5,106$2,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.9417752%92 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Bedoya48c4,171$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.215356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Mullarkey54c3,000$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,39042042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Mullarkey53c2,145$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.981877.8%14 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.28per pick50cpaid+70.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Bedoya48c2,065$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.3917850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Bedoya44c1,900$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.3630964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Bedoya52c1,746$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.843661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bedoya22c1,459$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9918145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Bedoya47c1,002$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4714665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Bedoya46c999.99$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46023537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3d…7422backed Mullarkey54c970.14$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.261136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Mullarkey54c800$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.126743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bedoya28c794.2$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.8721247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb790…8389backed Mullarkey50c762$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Mullarkey48c671$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.9218038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x370f…c4e4backed Mullarkey52c668.26$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3213661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mullarkey53c613$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.1113953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Mullarkey76c580$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4520954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Bedoya47c530$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.139959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Mullarkey55c475.16$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.167451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Mullarkey51c468.63$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Bedoya46c464.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8921044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Mullarkey47c463$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.648940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Mullarkey47c440$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.222342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Mullarkey54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.376937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x22a3…8665backed Bedoya48c364.58$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Mullarkey72c309.99$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.812055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bedoya43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12918453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Mullarkey57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12913041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Bedoya45c255.36$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.866756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Bedoya49c250$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.513160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Mullarkey55c228.25$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3451533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Mullarkey54c201.85$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.856462.5%40 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Mullarkey51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9816851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Bedoya47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9425251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Bedoya47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Mullarkey54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Mullarkey54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1929848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Mullarkey54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1935539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Mullarkey57c176.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.324548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Mullarkey63c174.03$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.039744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Mullarkey53c167.5$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.73757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c96…f165backed Mullarkey56c142.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.861752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Bedoya32c140$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.456450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e64…7308backed Mullarkey51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.252733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Bedoya31c110.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.14946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Bedoya47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4722753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Mullarkey53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Bedoya44c94.64$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6436745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Mullarkey54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5910043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Mullarkey54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.598932.6%29 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5879…bb5dbacked Mullarkey55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.912450%12 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Mullarkey56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.294856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Bedoya13c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe795…e6debacked Mullarkey50c66.36$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.183540%14 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbbef…c32bbacked Bedoya34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Bedoya54c55.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3032431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Mullarkey54c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.36741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Mullarkey47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Bedoya44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3853…a3d3backed Mullarkey54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Mullarkey52c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.622334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Mullarkey52c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Mullarkey54c44.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4412245.1%55 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Mullarkey54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0413647.8%65 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Mullarkey54c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0213450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Mullarkey49c33.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8512446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Mullarkey54c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8814052.1%73 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Mullarkey44c27.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1914827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…6e8ebacked Mullarkey55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.