UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Crute vs. Erslan

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa939c50c457f5b67a333a586acc69ea91daeef503e73f3c3437f9553ba2a7079

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cruteof Crute, Erslan
Resolved: Sep 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $287,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $300,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,028 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcfaa…2813backed Erslan	33c	190,302$62,799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62,799.12	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Crute	67c	62,000$41,540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,460	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+3.2wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Crute	68c	42,906$29,369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,536.6	148	57.4%85 W · 63 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Crute	67c	30,063$20,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,920.79	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Crute	67c	17,777$11,911 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,866.41	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Crute	67c	16,000$10,720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,280	125	41.6%52 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Erslan	33c	15,306$5,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,042.59	89	40.4%36 W · 53 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Crute	67c	15,180$10,171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,009.43	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+5.1wins	+0.28per pick	50cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Crute	67c	11,260$7,544 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,715.87	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Erslan	31c	11,111$3,444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,444.41	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a95…10b0backed Crute	69c	6,730$4,644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,086.38	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	68cpaid	+16%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Crute	67c	5,000$3,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,650	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Erslan	30c	3,523$1,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,043.36	78	41%32 W · 46 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Crute	68c	3,470$2,359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,110.24	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Erslan	33c	3,129$1,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032.53	358	26%93 W · 265 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Crute	67c	2,589$1,728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$861.44	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Crute	68c	2,565$1,734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$830.8	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Crute	67c	2,500$1,675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$825	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Erslan	32c	2,475$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	202	33.7%68 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Crute	67c	2,000$1,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$660	178	51.7%92 W · 86 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Crute	67c	1,586$1,067 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.13	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Crute	69c	1,500$1,035 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Crute	64c	1,500$959 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.9	170	55.3%94 W · 76 L	+10.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Crute	68c	1,500$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	252	51.2%129 W · 123 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Crute	69c	1,449$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.28	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.25per pick	65cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Crute	67c	1,044$699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.52	59	50.8%30 W · 29 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Erslan	1c	1,040$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Erslan	34c	1,021$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344	46	65.2%30 W · 16 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Crute	68c	1,016$691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.2	169	45.6%77 W · 92 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Crute	69c	1,000$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310	309	64.7%200 W · 109 L	+24.5wins	+0.08per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x370f…c4e4backed Crute	68c	1,000$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Erslan	32c	1,000$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	221	44.3%98 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Erslan	32c	941.29$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.63	89	39.3%35 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Erslan	35c	937.08$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.27	180	38.9%70 W · 110 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Erslan	36c	838.89$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Erslan	5c	800.55$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.03	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	+10.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Crute	67c	700$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231	267	43.8%117 W · 150 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Erslan	4c	541$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	201	39.8%80 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Erslan	34c	509.06$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.4	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Erslan	32c	468.75$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	-5.8wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf838…2aa0backed Crute	69c	457.75$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.9	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	62cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cdb…8547backed Crute	68c	450.74$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.24	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Crute	70c	428.57$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	357	64.7%231 W · 126 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Erslan	31c	424.42$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.37	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Crute	69c	412.2$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.78	165	43.6%72 W · 93 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Crute	69c	390.77$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.14	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Erslan	32c	325.4$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.4	235	37%87 W · 148 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Erslan	33c	312.12$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	-7.6wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Erslan	32c	309.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Crute	65c	300$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Erslan	30c	300$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	141	44.7%63 W · 78 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Erslan	34c	300$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	130	41.5%54 W · 76 L	-9.1wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Erslan	30c	274.98$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.74	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x257d…aac8backed Erslan	45c	265.2$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Crute	68c	248.74$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.52	131	60.3%79 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Erslan	29c	220.01$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.25	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Erslan	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Crute	65c	200$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Erslan	36c	199.11$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.68	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Erslan	34c	179.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.8	167	36.5%61 W · 106 L	-7.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Erslan	32c	160$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.2	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2800…2081backed Erslan	34c	158.91$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.03	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Crute	68c	153$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.46	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+3.9wins	+0.28per pick	44cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Erslan	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Erslan	22c	150$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	487	49.1%239 W · 248 L	-8.3wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd6…bc18backed Crute	67c	149.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.25	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Crute	68c	147.06$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.06	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Erslan	41c	146.69$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	324	31.8%103 W · 221 L	-9.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Crute	69c	144.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.93	97	44.3%43 W · 54 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Crute	69c	144.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.93	299	48.8%146 W · 153 L	-9.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x671f…af9cbacked Crute	69c	143.62$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.52	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Crute	68c	130$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.3	66	57.6%38 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3853…a3d3backed Crute	69c	120$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.2	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c96…f165backed Crute	69c	101.75$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.54	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Erslan	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a3…8665backed Crute	69c	99.78$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.93	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Erslan	31c	99.1$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.72	148	27%40 W · 108 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Erslan	33c	96$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.68	564	50.5%285 W · 279 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Erslan	32c	93.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	283	33.2%94 W · 189 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Crute	66c	91.54$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.13	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Crute	50c	85.21$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.6	169	55.6%94 W · 75 L	+23.8wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Crute	77c	85$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.55	378	54.8%207 W · 171 L	+20.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Crute	70c	78.57$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Erslan	33c	75.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Erslan	33c	75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Crute	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Crute	70c	71.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.57	228	53.1%121 W · 107 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe795…e6debacked Erslan	44c	71.14$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.3	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-4.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Crute	69c	71.01$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.01	166	55.4%92 W · 74 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Erslan	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	122	45.1%55 W · 67 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Erslan	33c	61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5879…bb5dbacked Erslan	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Erslan	38c	56.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.32	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Erslan	31c	55.13$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	124	46.8%58 W · 66 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Crute	67c	49.48$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.48	246	49.6%122 W · 124 L	+14.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Erslan	34c	43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf94f…a4d0backed Erslan	37c	40.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4931…e11cbacked Crute	69c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Crute	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	136	47.8%65 W · 71 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Crute	70c	19.68$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.9	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	-9.8wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Crute vs. Erslanthis page
UFC Fight Night: Carolina vs. MontagueMontague won
UFC Fight Night: Jenkins vs. TaverasJenkins won
UFC Fight Night: Lookboonmee vs. ThainaraThainara won
UFC Fight Night: Matthews vs. MagnyMagny won
UFC Fight Night: Mullarkey vs. BedoyaMullarkey won
UFC Fight Night: Pericic vs. EllisonPericic won
UFC Fight Night: Rowston vs. PetroskiRowston won
UFC Fight Night: Stirling vs. BellatoStirling won
UFC Fight Night: Thicknesse vs. MusasaThicknesse won
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesUlberg won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Crute vs. Erslan

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event