Fifa International · resolved market
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fd4163bf8578779bef3d9dd474caa9d37c4fa4d896607f13fd34c7c5b1263a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 55c | 4,388$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 47c | 2,532$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.17 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 50c | 1,972$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.72 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed Under | 45c | 1,470$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.12 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 50c | 1,390$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.9 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 51c | 1,377$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.6 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 46c | 999.96$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.98 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 50c | 968.19$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.78 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 49c | 793.71$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.3 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 53c | 677.76$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.25 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…b4ebbacked Over | 52c | 612.48$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.4 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…28f2backed Under | 45c | 498.87$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.38 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 44c | 468$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 56c | 468$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.92 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4e…bd80backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 21c | 399.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be3…6566backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 48c | 322$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.07 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf6…82c8backed Over | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 49c | 298.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 49c | 285.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…5058backed Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…fd0dbacked Under | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0422…ae21backed Over | 51c | 210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 201.43$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…f2aabacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 29c | 193.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Over | 30c | 166.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed Over | 59c | 162.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed Over | 53c | 161.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Under | 73c | 160.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 514 | 58.8%302 W · 212 L | +25.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Over | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 36%192 W · 342 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 58c | 140.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 518 | 59.8%310 W · 208 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef59…41f6backed Over | 43c | 139.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…01febacked Under | 46c | 133$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 218 | 40.8%89 W · 129 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 48c | 115$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…79c3backed Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…19cfbacked Over | 51c | 102.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 228 | 24.6%56 W · 172 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 322 | 54%174 W · 148 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23f…6c8abacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 203 | 37.9%77 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…51d2backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 49c | 96.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 260 | 47.3%123 W · 137 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…959fbacked Over | 53c | 94.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 36.7%33 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1a…ba0bbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 53c | 76.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 50c | 73.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 348 | 44.3%154 W · 194 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Under | 61c | 67.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 275 | 54.5%150 W · 125 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 23c | 57.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…9076backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…ea34backed Over | 32c | 50.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 222 | 42.3%94 W · 128 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…0b63backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 47.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 272 | 60.3%164 W · 108 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 68c | 43.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 38.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 340 | 56.5%192 W · 148 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 52c | 33.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 48c | 30.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…df50backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…05f7backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 42c | 25.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…1fa6backed Under | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 57c | 24.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 56c | 22.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 709 | 48.9%347 W · 362 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…27b4backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…2f24backed Under | 63c | 16.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Cornersthis page
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total CornersOver won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 CornersOver won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 CornersOver won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 CornersOver won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total CornersOver won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total CornersOver won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total CornersOver won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 CornersUnder won
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First CornerDR Congo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.