TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Hagen: Carlos Taberner vs Marko Topo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Carlos Tabernerof Carlos Taberner, Marko Topo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca97…49f6backed Marko Topo59c15,240$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00010448.1%50 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Carlos Taberner43c5,137$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.98,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Carlos Taberner40c5,112$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.4611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Carlos Taberner42c4,849$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,790.281,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc13f…c336backed Marko Topo49c2,094$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.7522123.1%51 W · 170 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Marko Topo62c1,478$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.185,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Carlos Taberner39c1,477$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.691,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ab…ee2bbacked Carlos Taberner61c1,352$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.467451.4%38 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Marko Topo57c1,141$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.83,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Marko Topo65c1,131$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.673,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Marko Topo1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10543.7%2 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marko Topo52c989.45$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.98,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a2…704cbacked Carlos Taberner25c800$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60014418.1%26 W · 118 L-0.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Marko Topo56c796.73$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.1730056.7%170 W · 130 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Carlos Taberner44c747.12$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.791,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Carlos Taberner44c700.37$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.2156651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x374e…87c9backed Marko Topo57c699.98$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.998644.2%38 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x045c…5861backed Marko Topo58c677.36$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.115246.7%71 W · 81 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Carlos Taberner63c609.36$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.791051%464 W · 446 L+23.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Carlos Taberner22c600$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46831234.6%108 W · 204 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Marko Topo57c589.9$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33591754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Marko Topo74c556.18$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.924,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Carlos Taberner56c535$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.425546.7%119 W · 136 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf353…692abacked Marko Topo57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e54…e773backed Marko Topo56c526.3$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.736952.2%36 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0f79backed Marko Topo56c526.3$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.7313337.6%50 W · 83 L-17.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xad5c…17eebacked Marko Topo56c526.3$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.732748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Marko Topo77c507.71$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.6670254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Carlos Taberner44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f2…4c29backed Carlos Taberner23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3858326.5%22 W · 61 L+8.0wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+72.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Marko Topo48c431.33$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.42,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Carlos Taberner24c429.21$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.296035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dbe…7833backed Carlos Taberner24c415.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2315115.9%24 W · 127 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Carlos Taberner45c407$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.851,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7596…f13abacked Carlos Taberner37c405.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.419340.9%38 W · 55 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Carlos Taberner38c395.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.061,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Marko Topo67c384.28$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.051,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Marko Topo18c379.17$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6975312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5818…5269backed Marko Topo56c364.61$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.188933.7%30 W · 59 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5be5…4465backed Carlos Taberner48c338$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd32d…23b4backed Carlos Taberner50c317.08$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.549151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Carlos Taberner44c307.76$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.78,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Marko Topo31c306.91$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.371,04236.5%380 W · 662 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…e738backed Marko Topo52c301.3$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6811861%72 W · 46 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Carlos Taberner35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.926,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Carlos Taberner44c291.63$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.561,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Marko Topo61c290.06$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.941,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Carlos Taberner39c278.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.876036.7%22 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x189b…5718backed Marko Topo76c265.79$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023964.1%25 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Carlos Taberner42c264.12$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.272147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd325…2482backed Carlos Taberner20c238.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.729433%31 W · 63 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Carlos Taberner44c229.11$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.31,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13c0…a298backed Marko Topo56c222.27$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.496944.9%31 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Marko Topo58c214.48$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.192,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e6…0ae1backed Carlos Taberner50c213.7$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8515864.6%102 W · 56 L-0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Marko Topo57c210.18$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.031,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Carlos Taberner49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Carlos Taberner44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Carlos Taberner27c188.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.811,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x25f7…b16dbacked Carlos Taberner53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6828154.8%154 W · 127 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Carlos Taberner31c181.81$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6826955%148 W · 121 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a96…1791backed Marko Topo56c181.18$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Marko Topo56c178.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027139.1%106 W · 165 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc7…268dbacked Marko Topo56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5251…be02backed Carlos Taberner46c177.05$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.023745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Marko Topo23c170.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.386,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Marko Topo56c160.71$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9039648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Carlos Taberner39c160$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.63542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x986b…bdc6backed Carlos Taberner76c159$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1611433.3%38 W · 76 L-25.1wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-53.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x8806…d9f1backed Marko Topo26c152.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6316726.3%44 W · 123 L-18.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc4c9…2fd1backed Marko Topo50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755058%29 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Carlos Taberner24c145.83$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.832,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f3…b21cbacked Marko Topo59c143.22$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.55468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0368…9874backed Marko Topo71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Marko Topo61c139.75$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.252,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe004…d87cbacked Marko Topo59c135.17$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7515060%90 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Carlos Taberner43c132.6$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.581,02149.8%508 W · 513 L+42.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x449f…2d2ebacked Carlos Taberner36c127.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7825447.6%121 W · 133 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Marko Topo60c126.52$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.522,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Marko Topo35c124.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.812947.3%61 W · 68 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Marko Topo57c118$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.461,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Carlos Taberner44c117.45$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7295050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8468…3860backed Carlos Taberner43c116.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2824231%75 W · 167 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Marko Topo62c109.4$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.733,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Carlos Taberner55c108.19$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.019,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcca0…3738backed Marko Topo56c107.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Marko Topo56c104.82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1669047%324 W · 366 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Carlos Taberner24c104.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.273,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0052…30bcbacked Carlos Taberner49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.049346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Carlos Taberner44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5693945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cf…d3aebacked Carlos Taberner45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5544946.1%207 W · 242 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c60ebacked Carlos Taberner79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2137460.4%226 W · 148 L+29.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Marko Topo33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330147.5%143 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Carlos Taberner37c99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4525048.8%122 W · 128 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Carlos Taberner42c97.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1742946.4%199 W · 230 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8987…44d6backed Marko Topo57c97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.295664.3%36 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4a…ad4cbacked Carlos Taberner80c93.75$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7510438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x479c…04ecbacked Carlos Taberner52c91.17$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.937042.9%30 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Carlos Taberner33c90.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9141440.3%167 W · 247 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70bb…10d3backed Carlos Taberner55c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.533754%182 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.