Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6525f06eb6aafbe9cce0cf0205624a63f058ca6bb43b01db82141dd3bdb1e42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,655$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.3 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,304$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 68c | 2,200$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.99 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked No | 45c | 2,104$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.06 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 34c | 1,375$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.71 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 1,297$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 916.41$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 806.68$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 724.05$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 692.15$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…cc0abacked Yes | 27c | 678.8$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 665$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 657.25$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed No | 65c | 622$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.77 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61e…493fbacked No | 78c | 618.57$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 49c | 616.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 567.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 527.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 486.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 21c | 443.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 395$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 343.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 72c | 340.41$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.1 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 77c | 334.5$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.87 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 317.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 63c | 299.04$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 36c | 297.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.32 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…7f42backed No | 43c | 279.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 274.51$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed No | 73c | 262.17$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 24c | 256.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.71 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 230$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 229.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 53c | 224.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 26c | 219.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed No | 25c | 209.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 34c | 203.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.81 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 18c | 200.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 178$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 24c | 176.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.28 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 156.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 50c | 153.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 77c | 148.8$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 141.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 20c | 138.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 77c | 129.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 39c | 129.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 120.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…a53fbacked No | 70c | 119.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 78c | 117.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 115.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 26c | 115.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 46c | 113.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 67c | 109.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 26c | 109.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 105.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 57c | 105.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 102.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed No | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 18c | 98.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 60c | 97.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 96.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 94.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 93.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 29c | 93.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…b1d9backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 89.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 15c | 86.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 79c | 86.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 28c | 86.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 47c | 85.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked No | 36c | 82.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 26c | 79.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 54c | 74.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 25c | 74.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 36c | 63.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 54.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 27c | 53.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 72c | 49.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e13…f6b6backed Yes | 22c | 47.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…e292backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 43.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 33c | 41.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 74c | 40.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 77c | 38.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.