TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Wildcard (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wildcardof Alliance, Wildcard
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$568,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$592,512

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $568,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Wildcard37c200,000$74,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,999.9112348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d4f…e5f3backed Alliance54c129,378$69,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,984.24850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Alliance58c30,000$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,50076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Wildcard65c30,000$19,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,499.9725655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Alliance34c26,025$8,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,9661,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Alliance63c19,590$12,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,243.7542142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Alliance63c15,000$9,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,42036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wildcard38c14,173$5,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,787.0481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked Alliance63c13,869$8,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,737.453729.7%11 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Alliance62c13,500$8,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,409.9917062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Alliance54c11,934$6,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,445.721,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Wildcard57c10,149$5,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,331.621,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d4d…6be9backed Wildcard65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,500944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Wildcard37c8,180$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,153.515,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Alliance65c7,997$5,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,159.8950054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Alliance25c7,945$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00019229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed Wildcard37c7,470$2,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,694.146352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef7…0a2dbacked Wildcard36c6,659$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,261.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+82.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Alliance63c6,243$3,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,932.9417240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed Wildcard65c6,097$3,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1345455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Wildcard43c5,814$2,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,286.81,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Alliance63c5,408$3,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,416.0621655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Wildcard78c5,237$4,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.572,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Wildcard67c4,078$2,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.266546.2%30 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fec…e218backed Wildcard65c4,060$2,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4212751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+57.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed Wildcard65c4,042$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.75459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Wildcard37c4,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.9226952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Wildcard36c3,969$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.3941649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0724…9091backed Wildcard37c3,876$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.882142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed Alliance56c3,573$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017554.9%96 W · 79 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0478…37c3backed Alliance63c3,519$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.139952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Alliance60c3,500$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.9966851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Alliance63c3,400$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1428047.5%38 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Alliance62c3,200$1,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97613646.3%63 W · 73 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed Alliance34c3,184$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.565160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Wildcard37c3,147$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.0633627.7%93 W · 243 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Alliance63c3,063$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.3337157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed Wildcard65c3,018$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.117548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Alliance62c3,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8606036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…b275backed Alliance23c2,686$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.831822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Alliance28c2,637$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.3516542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Alliance31c2,538$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7755,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Wildcard37c2,377$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.6946555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Alliance63c2,300$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.3126360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Wildcard76c2,234$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.162,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Wildcard36c2,200$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.9522943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Wildcard54c1,980$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.629254.3%50 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Wildcard69c1,974$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.242,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Wildcard65c1,962$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.5432542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Alliance64c1,875$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20048350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66d5…9e9fbacked Alliance63c1,862$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.065855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Alliance63c1,654$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.741,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Wildcard37c1,652$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.3338841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Alliance34c1,614$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.7521854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed Alliance63c1,605$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.8524262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Alliance55c1,594$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.1675245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Alliance63c1,559$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.9721346.9%100 W · 113 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Wildcard48c1,546$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.9588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Alliance64c1,530$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.52860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Wildcard65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5251,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Alliance55c1,428$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.457641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alliance28c1,395$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.335,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Wildcard37c1,389$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.9859755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91df…fd49backed Alliance63c1,348$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84915966%105 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Alliance41c1,336$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.117240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Wildcard38c1,316$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.7920946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Alliance63c1,306$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.3444747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Alliance61c1,302$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.3124935.7%89 W · 160 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed Alliance63c1,300$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Wildcard38c1,273$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.2419346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Wildcard36c1,172$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.8427753.8%149 W · 128 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefd3…bed8backed Alliance22c1,145$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.59922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-68.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6033…8a83backed Alliance18c1,122$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015133.1%50 W · 101 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Wildcard37c1,111$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.992,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Wildcard66c1,100$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3746756.7%38 W · 29 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed Alliance55c1,099$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008361.4%51 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Alliance62c1,089$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.1625845.7%118 W · 140 L-18.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Alliance24c1,081$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.512,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Wildcard33c1,050$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.512244.3%54 W · 68 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed Wildcard65c1,026$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.18452.4%44 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Alliance63c1,019$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.8738454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Alliance7c1,012$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.373,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Wildcard69c1,000$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.492,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Wildcard39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61097040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed Alliance63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63022358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17de…8b83backed Alliance63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed Alliance57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57022757.3%130 W · 97 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Alliance29c998.45$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.576,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Alliance63c962.18$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2122266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Alliance59c941.04$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.2263541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d9…2085backed Wildcard76c939$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.364240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Alliance10c927.07$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.222,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Alliance41c910$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.1955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed Alliance24c844$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5613550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe601…84ecbacked Wildcard42c838.99$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.2348845.7%223 W · 265 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Alliance23c837.84$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.774,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Alliance63c829.99$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.899159.3%54 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Alliance63c806$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.781,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Alliance62c805$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.155845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af1…8bd4backed Alliance42c798$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.55143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.