TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LOUDof KRÜ Esports, LOUD
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$374,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$394,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,810 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed LOUD42c174,576$73,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,321.285429.6%16 W · 38 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-42%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed KRÜ Esports58c51,651$29,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,920.972020%4 W · 16 L-6.2wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8660…93edbacked KRÜ Esports58c50,605$29,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,350.6617948.6%87 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969a…59ddbacked KRÜ Esports58c33,600$19,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,487.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed KRÜ Esports61c9,016$5,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,494.8140945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked LOUD53c8,725$4,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,093.5326650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked KRÜ Esports59c7,000$4,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,129.9912652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed KRÜ Esports76c6,843$5,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,223.586038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd794…248bbacked KRÜ Esports59c4,938$2,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,913.231770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked KRÜ Esports58c4,500$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6102330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-35.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed LOUD40c4,188$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.5634356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed KRÜ Esports60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40052155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked KRÜ Esports58c3,995$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.6333153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed KRÜ Esports59c3,929$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.1293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed LOUD41c3,900$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3014158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba66…0779backed KRÜ Esports58c3,840$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.99540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed LOUD41c3,565$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.3819860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked KRÜ Esports42c3,433$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.7468458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed LOUD25c2,666$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.4822344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c95…10f5backed LOUD47c2,541$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed KRÜ Esports23c2,536$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.631,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed KRÜ Esports44c2,428$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.3862156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked LOUD79c2,412$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.6468949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed KRÜ Esports58c2,359$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.144740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed KRÜ Esports57c2,184$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25514941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked LOUD29c2,051$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.261637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0bc8…adf7backed KRÜ Esports58c1,953$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.731346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked LOUD48c1,887$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed KRÜ Esports52c1,877$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.045151%26 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed LOUD42c1,776$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.145251.9%27 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed KRÜ Esports59c1,711$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.386256.5%35 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed LOUD40c1,660$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.3132152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…0e0cbacked KRÜ Esports80c1,652$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked KRÜ Esports58c1,636$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.877338.4%28 W · 45 L-10.0wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-25.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed LOUD19c1,542$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.753537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed KRÜ Esports57c1,500$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.224250.4%122 W · 120 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed LOUD23c1,465$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.9833838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed KRÜ Esports57c1,398$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.9625453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed KRÜ Esports64c1,386$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.8216547.9%79 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked KRÜ Esports58c1,341$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.5931153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked KRÜ Esports58c1,336$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.4624551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cea…e48ebacked KRÜ Esports43c1,306$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.261030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ba…b673backed LOUD49c1,300$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked LOUD75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001675%12 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed KRÜ Esports59c1,200$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70463955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked LOUD25c1,197$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.2157151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03d8…e73cbacked KRÜ Esports59c1,158$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.193050%15 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed KRÜ Esports50c1,108$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.1516950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc6a…bf47backed KRÜ Esports58c1,101$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed LOUD58c1,085$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.4532462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed KRÜ Esports79c1,062$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.0112755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed LOUD26c990$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.4674642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked KRÜ Esports58c949.58$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.7626450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked LOUD26c890$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.6277744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked KRÜ Esports58c888$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.0455152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked KRÜ Esports58c870.47$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.876931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked LOUD24c865.48$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.2170043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d4…ee54backed KRÜ Esports59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed KRÜ Esports60c827.94$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.5553159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed LOUD43c776.1$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.3854751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked KRÜ Esports39c746$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9221136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked KRÜ Esports71c729.99$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.394361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed LOUD55c719.99$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3246654.5%36 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed KRÜ Esports62c688.57$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.191,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked KRÜ Esports70c645.66$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.0678562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed LOUD29c629.25$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.5554342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed KRÜ Esports59c620$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.825555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed KRÜ Esports70c609.32$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.217853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked LOUD31c600$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4144932.7%16 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed LOUD46c548.87$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.6615147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed LOUD47c535.46$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.211,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked KRÜ Esports41c533.63$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.4830835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed KRÜ Esports58c520.2$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9628252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ede…59e6backed KRÜ Esports39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked KRÜ Esports50c504.09$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.721,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed LOUD42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29018049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5844…5bd4backed KRÜ Esports58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01b2…4ba1backed LOUD32c500$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked KRÜ Esports57c490.95$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0824032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed LOUD47c483.18$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.595743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed KRÜ Esports46c456.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9677929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe896…a4c7backed LOUD55c456.37$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.375650%28 W · 28 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked KRÜ Esports57c450$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.56347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked LOUD58c439.68$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7335142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked LOUD36c431.73$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9910455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed KRÜ Esports38c430.55$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.5526932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed KRÜ Esports39c414.97$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5316144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked KRÜ Esports57c410.92$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.0965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50ab…70a2backed KRÜ Esports44c410.81$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1799540%38 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed LOUD41c406$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.546570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed KRÜ Esports58c400$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23228541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb342…c4ecbacked KRÜ Esports20c390$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.25044%22 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed LOUD49c380.33$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.236048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked KRÜ Esports58c367.21$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.984537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed LOUD47c361.7$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.72944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb7…a3cdbacked LOUD53c361.35$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.353863.2%24 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed KRÜ Esports53c359.94$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4923732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed LOUD46c354.02$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.0711747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed LOUD48c352.69$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.4651749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked LOUD28c351.12$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.081,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.