TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$147,818
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,818 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c8e…c91bbacked Yes76c19,376$14,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,734.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No26c11,690$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,984.771,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No21c6,411$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.012,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes51c6,279$3,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,085.484337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16c8…6632backed Yes64c6,010$3,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.08580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed No68c5,555$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,777.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No27c4,959$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.8948658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes27c3,779$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.1675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes15c3,585$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.251,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes78c2,297$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.4449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No38c2,171$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.6716060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1063…18e1backed No1c2,001$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes14c1,500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes14c1,286$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.713834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed07…886abacked No69c1,200$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8281883.3%15 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+42.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes70c1,029$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.251275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Yes17c969$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.273658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+58.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No30c756.62$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2213139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes39c710.08$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.21,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes74c704.43$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9523842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes40c702.34$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.349250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No55c673.05$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.5251136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes15c666.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.674924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes45c656.75$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.6517055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447e…9710backed Yes14c577.74$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.862240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Yes79c503.94$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.462025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No29c455.03$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5233737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes67c448.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.717967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No70c446.58$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.0333938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Yes73c420$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.82556%14 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Yes70c409.55$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8544…3d33backed Yes74c403.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.021861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes14c397.96$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.2569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes15c309.57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.1322829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcfdb…0ababacked Yes14c249.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes26c242.94$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.183,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes79c216.59$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.996462.5%40 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No53c213.66$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2411644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed No35c210.07$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4911931.1%37 W · 82 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f27…fc32backed Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1521435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cb…c523backed Yes14c200$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f85…87d5backed No18c187.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.916055%33 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No34c184.75$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0612832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Yes14c178.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.576450%32 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed Yes25c158.71$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.712748.1%13 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed No31c153.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.652948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d8a…e03fbacked Yes71c150.14$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.54785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick72cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes14c148.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.415232.7%17 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Yes36c125$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eac…525ebacked Yes14c121.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.431442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes15c120$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No35c115.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.259951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes48c108.69$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.555058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f94…ce11backed Yes44c104.09$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d9…2f4abacked No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702479.2%19 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+38.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e4d…b339backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57a…5cfcbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa76e…4aebbacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3e…ef94backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes51c92.41$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4938151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc378…9592backed No75c80$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed No74c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.22759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Yes38c78.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9239558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe33c…2bd1backed No46c78.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.071241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x166f…bb0fbacked Yes66c74.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe66d…97acbacked Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.431250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x205b…d66abacked Yes43c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.92560%15 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked No29c66.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.137834.6%27 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41c…2f0dbacked Yes70c66.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.53748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9945…b626backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed No52c58.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.419254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x767f…30d4backed Yes75c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2544…6221backed Yes28c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+199.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed Yes76c52.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49b9…9613backed Yes75c52.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8d…c35dbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362218.2%4 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-69%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Yes29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.48636%31 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.128541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e2…37dabacked Yes77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No51c34.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a3…4a83backed Yes72c34.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x843c…529ebacked No59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e0…6695backed Yes76c32.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.89850%4 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd7…88d8backed No35c30.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed No69c29.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.665244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc6c…fe22backed Yes75c26.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14de…489cbacked Yes77c26.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa933…0ef2backed Yes65c21.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e1c…a6adbacked No73c20.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf617…7ff1backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff9…46bbbacked Yes69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ad…4eebbacked Yes65c18.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.442263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No70c18.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7176234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaffb…c689backed Yes74c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.68366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a85…4f81backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6b…f532backed Yes78c13.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.