TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof Karmine Corp, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e5e…7315backed Karmine Corp53c84,000$44,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,479.9812840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Natus Vincere47c75,099$35,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,296.5396048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Natus Vincere46c15,419$7,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,088.4390348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere47c14,897$6,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,956.31,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Karmine Corp53c12,000$6,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.9932350.8%164 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Karmine Corp54c10,931$5,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,028.056338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Natus Vincere46c9,227$4,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,244.4525546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked Natus Vincere47c9,000$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2305429.6%16 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf949…3220backed Natus Vincere46c8,000$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,679.998951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked Karmine Corp55c7,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.9914342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed Natus Vincere50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Karmine Corp54c5,220$2,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,401.3717647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Natus Vincere47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35049940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Karmine Corp53c5,000$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,33011245.5%51 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Natus Vincere45c3,907$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.091,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Natus Vincere45c3,711$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.0648844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Karmine Corp57c3,483$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.4269741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Karmine Corp49c3,054$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.422,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Karmine Corp54c3,000$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.7647455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked Karmine Corp53c2,868$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.935352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed Karmine Corp50c2,600$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.16342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Natus Vincere46c2,134$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.4229447.6%140 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Natus Vincere48c1,410$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.5744451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d91…a5fdbacked Karmine Corp53c1,354$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.376258.1%36 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Karmine Corp63c1,225$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.11,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed Karmine Corp55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45023639.8%94 W · 142 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Natus Vincere47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47026729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Natus Vincere46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46029738.7%115 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc6…4593backed Karmine Corp54c999.99$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46027946.2%129 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c65…4f24backed Karmine Corp53c999.97$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.987657.9%44 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere45c985$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.252,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1c…e369backed Karmine Corp55c979.09$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5921546%99 W · 116 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Natus Vincere49c978$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.2220644.7%92 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Karmine Corp54c908.96$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.1222536.9%83 W · 142 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Natus Vincere45c861.71$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.271,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Karmine Corp55c851.11$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3831,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Natus Vincere58c705.61$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.431,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf19…79bbbacked Karmine Corp52c574.38$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.3816858.9%99 W · 69 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x532b…30c1backed Karmine Corp52c571.97$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.979339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Karmine Corp53c555$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.8552045%234 W · 286 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Natus Vincere46c501$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4621051.4%108 W · 102 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Natus Vincere45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22548847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Natus Vincere57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28595048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Natus Vincere45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22522746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked Karmine Corp54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23019260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Karmine Corp40c499.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9837039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed Natus Vincere47c495.86$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.055547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Karmine Corp56c475.27$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7997854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Karmine Corp55c457.91$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.9165063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78fa…d5c3backed Natus Vincere45c450.52$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5311443%49 W · 65 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Natus Vincere58c400$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23264453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Natus Vincere47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1881,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed Karmine Corp54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18424648.4%119 W · 127 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked Karmine Corp54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3722741%93 W · 134 L+1.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f17…6001backed Karmine Corp54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.372951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed Karmine Corp54c356$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.7623332.6%76 W · 157 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f87…f04ebacked Karmine Corp61c351.64$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1422265.3%145 W · 77 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b2c…f0d6backed Karmine Corp55c327.27$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.274652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Natus Vincere47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507251.4%37 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Karmine Corp55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13553829.4%158 W · 380 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed Karmine Corp55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13539251.3%201 W · 191 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b35…b8f8backed Karmine Corp55c299.07$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.588362.7%52 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25a4…2694backed Karmine Corp55c290.91$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.915263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Karmine Corp54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.786956.5%39 W · 30 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11ca…2737backed Karmine Corp54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7811264.3%72 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a5…534cbacked Karmine Corp54c273.98$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.0320739.1%81 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Karmine Corp54c249.96$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.986352.4%33 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Natus Vincere47c245.82$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5415648.7%76 W · 80 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Karmine Corp46c226.67$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.971,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Natus Vincere54c208.56$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6533139.9%132 W · 199 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed Karmine Corp54c203.7$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.726440.9%108 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.551,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8feb…63fcbacked Karmine Corp56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8821548.4%104 W · 111 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Natus Vincere47c193.77$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5939951.1%204 W · 195 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Karmine Corp54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1920551.7%106 W · 99 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcfe…4a37backed Karmine Corp54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1915349%75 W · 78 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Karmine Corp53c184.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.742962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ec…9c6dbacked Karmine Corp55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.829459.6%56 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…2d13backed Karmine Corp55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8251552.6%271 W · 244 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4141…cffcbacked Karmine Corp56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.573836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa430…c6f9backed Karmine Corp55c176.75$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5426150.6%132 W · 129 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b7…aab1backed Natus Vincere49c162.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8319045.3%86 W · 104 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d24…cf3fbacked Karmine Corp54c161$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0614663.7%93 W · 53 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Karmine Corp57c157.31$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.235749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked Karmine Corp53c129.28$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.765246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5252…a7cdbacked Karmine Corp54c127.44$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6264435.4%228 W · 416 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d29…65e7backed Karmine Corp54c124.87$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4418831.4%59 W · 129 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Natus Vincere47c123.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.510138.6%39 W · 62 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca5…0cd6backed Natus Vincere47c122.21$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed Natus Vincere46c110.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9639652%206 W · 190 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Natus Vincere47c105$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.358648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa8…efa7backed Karmine Corp67c105$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.651070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Natus Vincere45c102.22$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4692354.3%501 W · 422 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Natus Vincere47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.537650%188 W · 188 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Karmine Corp53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Natus Vincere46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4646248.9%226 W · 236 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c1…1527backed Karmine Corp54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469351.6%48 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Karmine Corp54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked Karmine Corp54c97.04$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6476047%357 W · 403 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Karmine Corp54c89.61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2212251.6%63 W · 59 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.