TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof Karmine Corp, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,776
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$395,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,776 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed Natus Vincere19c25,954$4,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,931.1825946.7%121 W · 138 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked Natus Vincere18c24,000$4,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,389.981435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Natus Vincere18c23,539$4,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,283.481,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed Natus Vincere24c23,330$5,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,483.8418629.6%55 W · 131 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0182…5d00backed Natus Vincere42c20,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,399.993138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Natus Vincere8c18,207$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.1138148%183 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Karmine Corp67c17,889$12,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,815.6570641.5%293 W · 413 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Natus Vincere8c13,689$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.146046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Karmine Corp74c13,237$9,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,433.391,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked Natus Vincere18c10,698$1,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.6325953.7%139 W · 120 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Natus Vincere19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90030421.7%66 W · 238 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19c0…c8cdbacked Natus Vincere8c8,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6403020%6 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Natus Vincere18c7,000$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29532534.8%113 W · 212 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Natus Vincere15c6,000$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.991,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Natus Vincere18c5,473$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.6853047.2%250 W · 280 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Karmine Corp58c4,290$2,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.731,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed Karmine Corp80c4,264$3,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.379853.1%52 W · 46 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Natus Vincere17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6805839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Natus Vincere19c3,465$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.4196948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Natus Vincere1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d72…02d0backed Natus Vincere18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506529.2%19 W · 46 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Natus Vincere20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Natus Vincere9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9841227.4%113 W · 299 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Natus Vincere25c2,069$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.581,00454.5%547 W · 457 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Karmine Corp69c1,757$1,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.781,06723.5%251 W · 816 L-76.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Natus Vincere23c1,700$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38790350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ad…a859backed Karmine Corp75c1,667$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.676468.8%44 W · 20 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Natus Vincere15c1,417$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5519835.4%70 W · 128 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Karmine Corp74c1,299$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.771,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere11c1,231$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.032,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Natus Vincere18c1,072$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1936955.1%38 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x389d…83dfbacked Natus Vincere8c1,062$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Natus Vincere26c1,011$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.271,85239.8%738 W · 1,114 L-64.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Karmine Corp73c972.9$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.461,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed Natus Vincere12c840.64$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.726844.1%30 W · 38 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Karmine Corp58c840$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.866845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Natus Vincere19c800$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15247136.9%174 W · 297 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Karmine Corp79c758.98$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7146451.7%240 W · 224 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Natus Vincere20c739.7$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8915648.7%76 W · 80 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Natus Vincere16c682.85$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2642137.5%158 W · 263 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Natus Vincere16c682.85$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2623636.4%86 W · 150 L-13.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Natus Vincere19c677.91$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.811346.9%53 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Natus Vincere23c661.06$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.561,08546.2%501 W · 584 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68e9…845cbacked Natus Vincere17c656.8$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2615536.1%56 W · 99 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Karmine Corp61c644.99$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.8522146.6%103 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere12c642.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Karmine Corp80c569.59$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.9216851.2%86 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Karmine Corp74c562.21$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.331,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Natus Vincere18c550$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,29926.6%345 W · 954 L+65.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Natus Vincere9c549.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1251247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Natus Vincere19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055545%250 W · 305 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked Karmine Corp66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1707857.7%45 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed Karmine Corp80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007954.4%43 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aef…22d9backed Karmine Corp80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10034868.4%238 W · 110 L+23.5wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Natus Vincere19c496.86$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.240551.1%207 W · 198 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere24c483.4$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.882,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed Natus Vincere24c481.33$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8323032.2%74 W · 156 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Karmine Corp68c442.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9497744.8%438 W · 539 L-30.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8c…f872backed Karmine Corp57c438.72$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.7215754.8%86 W · 71 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c5…4ff4backed Natus Vincere16c427.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708732.2%28 W · 59 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde2e…439cbacked Natus Vincere19c378.95$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729334.4%32 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Natus Vincere19c376$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4418144.2%80 W · 101 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Natus Vincere4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151497.4%11 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Natus Vincere23c371.63$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.741,09147.4%517 W · 574 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Natus Vincere20c360$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7235642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2417…86b1backed Karmine Corp69c317.12$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1217945.3%81 W · 98 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Natus Vincere19c315.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023253.4%124 W · 108 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Natus Vincere19c302.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.351,11748.8%545 W · 572 L+40.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Natus Vincere12c299.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Natus Vincere25c293.92$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.421,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Karmine Corp67c288.56$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.081,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6593…445ebacked Natus Vincere9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a3…78b4backed Natus Vincere16c240.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.682339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Karmine Corp80c232.2$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7450041.6%208 W · 292 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x646a…cd90backed Natus Vincere22c200.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.132437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Natus Vincere35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7036446.4%169 W · 195 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Natus Vincere24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b09…e4c2backed Karmine Corp80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4010254.9%56 W · 46 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe8…fcabbacked Natus Vincere8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a16…de20backed Karmine Corp55c199.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9027655.8%154 W · 122 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b6…e854backed Natus Vincere13c195.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Karmine Corp78c194.48$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.346436.4%169 W · 295 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf711…eac5backed Natus Vincere10c192.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Natus Vincere31c181.95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.841,08239.5%427 W · 655 L-78.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Natus Vincere16c168.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.931,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Natus Vincere18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030537.7%115 W · 190 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd16b…36c0backed Karmine Corp79c160.62$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8248154.3%261 W · 220 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Karmine Corp74c160.01$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.646464%297 W · 167 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd325…2482backed Natus Vincere22c159.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick26cpaid-84.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa63b…b8cfbacked Natus Vincere22c159.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353450%17 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Natus Vincere19c157.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015038.7%58 W · 92 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked Natus Vincere43c151.52$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1548147.2%227 W · 254 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…0bffbacked Natus Vincere27c148.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022532.4%73 W · 152 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Karmine Corp77c148$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.353,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Karmine Corp67c143.59$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.71,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a52…c0e8backed Natus Vincere23c142.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0235716.2%58 W · 299 L-26.3wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0381…00f6backed Natus Vincere27c137.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.942650%13 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d6d…c149backed Natus Vincere19c134.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259152.7%48 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…76afbacked Natus Vincere19c132.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.